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Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Search Search: US economy down 3.8 pct, not as bad as feared AFP - Saturday, January 31 WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The US economy contracted at the fastest pace in 26 years in the fourth quarter, a 3.8 percent rate of decline, but avoided an even more calamitous drop feared by analysts, data showed Friday. The milder-than-expected downturn failed to ease concerns about a deepening recession, however, with some economists arguing that the data was skewed by special factors and could portend an even sharper drop in early 2009. The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) as estimated by the Commerce Department marked a sharp downward acceleration in economic activity after a 0.5 percent drop in the third quarter. But the figure was not as bad as the 5.5 percent annualized drop expected on average by private economists. Still, few took comfort in the data, which was skewed by a high rate of inventory buildup, suggesting business were surprised by the depth of the downturn and may have to cut production further in 2009. "The headline GDP figure was better than expected but this is very much an illusion supported by an unexpected increase in business inventories," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Guatieri said that the data suggest an even sharper decline in the first quarter of 2009. "We were running with a forecast of down 4.3 percent (in the first quarter) but we will likely revise that lower," he said. Meny Grauman at CIBC World Markets said that "a better-than-expected headline number could not hide what was essentially a very ugly snapshot of the US economy." "More concerning is the outlook for the first quarter, which was already starting to look worse and should now be further hit by a surprising inventory build," Grauman said. The world's biggest economy has been in recession since December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private group accepted as the arbiter of business cycles, even though up to now the economy had not shown two consecutive quarters of decline. The latest quarter was the worst for the economy since a 6.4 percent drop in the first quarter of 1982. President Barack Obama said the grim data underscored the need for Congress to act immediately on his economic stimulus plan. Disappearing jobs, home foreclosures and evaporating college and retirement savings are adding up to "the American dream in reverse," the president warned. "This isn't just an economic concept, this is a continuing disaster for America's working families," Obama said. "The recession is deepening, and the urgency of our economic crisis is growing," the president added. Over all of 2008, the US economy grew 1.3 percent, with total output of goods and services of 14.26 trillion dollars. The fourth-quarter report showed that excluding inventory buildup, the so-called final demand for goods and services decreased at a 5.1 percent rate. Government expenditures grew at a 5.8 percent rate, another positive contributor. But the real estate sector remained a black hole, with investment in residential structures plunging 23 percent and nonresidential activity down 19 percent. Consumer spending, the largest component of economic activity, fell 3.5 percent after a 3.8 percent decline in the third quarter. Business investment in equipment and software decreased 27.8 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.5 percent in the third quarter. Economist John Ryding at RDQ Economics said the GDP report "appears to be a poor metric of the recession." Ryding said GDP without adjusting for inflation would be the weakest since 1958. "Adjusting for inflation is very difficult in the face of such large energy price swings and we have argued that the unemployment rate is a much better indicator of the economy than is real GDP," Ryding said. The economy shed 2.6 million jobs over the course of 2008, the most since 1945, and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent in December, based on the latest Labor Department data. Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors said that although the GDP report was grim, there are signs of a potential rebound if one looks further ahead. "Starting in the spring, we could see things change dramatically. Housing should be less of a constraint as there is already no building going on," he said. "Inventories should be stabilized. As confidence stabilizes, any improvement in demand from the extraordinarily low levels of sales for things such as vehicles, furniture or houses would turn the consumption numbers around quickly." Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Recommend this article Average (1 vote) Sign in to recommend this article » Most Recommended Stories » Most Popular – Top Stories Viewed US House approves massive economic stimulus bill Soldier suicides hit record in 2008: US Army Financial crisis bringing global economy to standstill: IMF Wen and Putin lash out at US over economic crisis Boeing to cut 10,000 jobs after loss View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular

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