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Bernanke sees steady recovery, expects extended low rates
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Bernanke sees steady recovery, expects extended low rates
AFP - Thursday, February 25
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Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke (seen here in 2009) has said he expects a slow but steady recovery from recession that will require ultra-low rates to remain in effect for more time.
WASHINGTON (AFP) - – Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday he expects a slow but steady recovery from recession that will require ultra-low rates to remain in effect for more time.
The Fed chairman, in his semiannual report to Congress, said he sees unemployment remaining stubbornly high, which will require the Fed to stay on its stimulative path.
"After declining for a year and a half, economic activity in the United States turned up in the second half of 2009, supported by an improvement in financial conditions, stimulus from monetary and fiscal policies, and a recovery in foreign economies," he said in prepared remarks.
"These factors, along with increased business and household confidence, appear likely to boost spending and sustain the economic expansion. However, the pace of the recovery probably will be tempered by households' desire to rebuild wealth, still-tight credit conditions facing some borrowers, and, despite some tentative signs of stabilization, continued weakness in labor markets."
Because of these headwinds, Bernanke said that economic conditions are "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period," repeating a key phrase used by the central bank.
The Fed has kept its base rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent for over a year as part of massive effort to spark recovery. A variety of other programs to restore credit flows are gradually being wound down.
The central raised its discount rate for emergency bank loans earlier this month a quarter point but indicated that this was not a sign of tightening of overall policy.
The economic projections in the report, which were unveiled earlier this month, call for growth in a range of 2.8 to 3.5 percent, a narrower range than in the previous quarterly forecast. For 2011 the outlook is for growth to pick up to a range of 3.4 to 4.5 percent.
But the jobless rate is expected to remain high, in a range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent for 2010 before easing to 8.2 to 8.5 percent in 2011.
The report said the recovery was "expected to be gradual, with real gross domestic product (GDP) expanding at a rate that was only moderately above participants' assessment of its longer-run sustainable growth rate and the unemployment rate declining slowly over the next few years."
Inflation was expected to hold in a range of 1.4 to 1.7 percent in 2010 and 1.1 to 2.0 percent next year.
Appearing before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke reiterated that the Fed has an exit strategy to avoid a surge in inflation when the economy recovers, but was not ready to use this.
"The Federal Reserve is taking steps to ensure that it will be able to smoothly withdraw extraordinary policy accommodation when appropriate," he said.
He said the Fed was readying a variety of tools including the rate it pays on bank deposits at the Fed, to mop up liquidity in the financial system.
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