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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: Share prices mask uncertain India economy outlook AFP - Thursday, July 30 NEW DELHI (AFP) - - India's corporate profits have shot up and share prices have rocketed but Asia's third-largest economy is not out of the woods yet, analysts say. ADVERTISEMENT In fact, the central bank this week forecast just six percent growth for the current fiscal year, down from last year's 6.7 percent -- the weakest since 2003. The forecast is also a percentage point below the government's estimate. India's economic recovery has not yet "reached what might be termed a self-sustaining phase," said HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde. While six percent growth looks strong compared with the recession-hit US, Japan and Europe, India says it needs to return to the nine percent pace logged before the global slump to cut deep poverty among its over 1.1 billion people. The biggest shadow has been cast by a below-normal monsoon, known as an "economic lifeline" in India, where just 40 percent of arable land is irrigated. Citi economist Anushka Shah said her base case forecast of 6.8 percent growth for the year to March 2010 "could moderate to 5.8 percent or in a worse case to 5.2 percent levels, depending on the extent of (monsoon) damage." Agriculture accounts for nearly a fifth of gross domestic product and supports 60 percent of India's still mainly rural population, driving demand for everything from TV sets to gold in rural areas. Another long shadow over the emerging economic giant is falling exports in the face of the stubbornly persistent overseas downturn. Exports slid for the eighth straight month in May, plunging 29 percent to 11 billion dollars from a year earlier. Exports account for around just 15 percent of GDP in India, where the economy remains relatively inward-looking, but their tumble has led to widespread unemployment in the garment, jewellery and other sectors. Imports -- a pointer to demand strength -- have fared even worse, diving 39 percent. Meanwhile, the government's ability to boost the economy further on top of several stimulus packages has been held back by a ballooning deficit. Still, amid this gloom, first-quarter profits have been better than expected with many companies beating market forecasts and share prices have soared. India's benchmark Sensex 30-share index has rallied more than 55 percent this year to hit 15,300 levels, making it one of the world's top performing markets, and analysts are eyeing 16,000-plus levels by year end. Leading vehicle maker Tata Motors has reported a leap of nearly 60 percent in first-quarter net profit to 5.13 billion rupees (105 million dollars), driven partly by lower raw material costs and new models. India's number one mobile company by subscribers, Bharti Airtel, rang up a 24 percent net profit jump to 25.17 billion rupees (526 million dollars). And all three of India's top software service exporters defied the tough global conditions even with overseas sales growth slowing sharply. The biggest, Tata Consultancy Services, for instance, said its quarterly net profit rose 18.8 percent to 15.33 billion rupees (315 million dollars). Against this mixed backdrop, India's central bank has chosen to tread carefully. At a monetary policy meeting this week, the bank promised to keep the banking system flush with cash to help companies to invest while keeping interest rates on hold in the face of signs of resurgent inflation. The bank said it hoped its six percent growth forecast will surprise on the "upside." It is also banking that a slew of aggressive rate cuts announced earlier will lift the economy. "Monetary policy takes time to filter through to the economy. Policymakers are counting on previous rate cuts" to deliver the needed stimulus, said Sherman Chan, of Moody's Economy.com. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Sign in to recommend this article » 0 users recommend Related Articles: China's Economy Japan factory output logs sharpest rise in 56 yrsAFP - Thursday, July 30 Rudd warns of long recovery, unemployment to riseAFP - Thursday, July 30 China central bank to maintain credit policyAFP - Thursday, July 30 Primus gets HK partner for AIG Taiwan unit -sourcesReuters - Thursday, July 30 Related Articles: Business China to cut fuel price by 3%: govtAFP - Wednesday, July 29 Canon's profits plunge in first-halfAFP - Wednesday, July 29 Putnam cuts fund fees, restructures pricingAP - Wednesday, July 29 IBM to acquire SPSS for $1.2BAP - Wednesday, July 29 China to ban violent online gamesAP - Wednesday, July 29 Enlarge Photo Share prices mask uncertain India economy outlook Related Photos Slideshow Full Photo Coverage: Business & Economy Related Full Coverage China Economy china economy All Full Coverage Most Popular – Business Viewed Doctor gave Jackson drug that killed him: CNN Police raid Vegas home of Jackson doctor Sunbeds elevated to top cancer risk level: WHO Lost love letter reunites couple after 16 years Ex-boxing champ Forrest shot in back and killed View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! 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