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RPT-PREVIEW-S.Korea banks set to recover after weak Q2
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RPT-PREVIEW-S.Korea banks set to recover after weak Q2
Reuters - Thursday, July 30
(This is a repeat of an earlier story ahead of KB Financial's earnings release. Updates Samsung Sec earnings date to early Aug)
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* What: Banks' Q2 earnings; seen down on sliding margins
* When: KB on July 30, Shinhan on July 29, Hana on July 24
* Loan delinquencies at 6-mth low, economic outlook improved
By Kim Yeon-hee
SEOUL, July 23 - South Korean banks, led by KB Financial Group <105560.KS>, will likely post weak second-quarter results due to big interest margin contractions but falling loan delinquencies are stoking hopes for a turnaround in the sector.
The results come as the worst seems to be over for Asia's fourth-largest economy, with the Bank of Korea raising in July its 2009 gross domestic product forecast to a 1.6 percent contraction from the previous 2.4 percent drop, following robust exports and trade surplus.
Net interest margins , which make up 70 percent of local banks' earnings, are expected to rebound from the current quarter as lenders began lowering deposit rates to reflect falling lending rates, and the loan delinquency ratio slid to a six-month low of 1.19 percent in June.
"There are mounting expectations that after weak Q2 results, bank earnings will bottom out from Q3, which will be evidenced by improvements in margins and asset quality," said Bryan Song, an analyst of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Kookmin Bank, a unit of KB Financial Group <KB.N>, and accounting for 90 percent of group assets, is seen having shaved 50 basis points off its NIM in the second quarter, a sharper decline than its forecast of a 10-basis-point decline.
Its loan growth is estimated by analysts at just 1 percent in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with 6-7 percent annual rises in 2007 and 2008 respectively.
Separately, KB Financial is gearing up to raise 1 trillion won in a new share sale next month, a move seen as preparation for mergers and acquisitions. [ID:nSEO221280]
TIGHTENED SUPERVISION
Even as economic conditions are improving, new challenges are looming for the banks.
Regulatory steps to crack down on mortgage loans from this month and the current government plan of relying on banks to restructure small and medium-sized companies in the second half may weigh on loan growth and result in new provisioning charges.
The government is expected to stay conservative about banks' capital rules and provisioning requirements, CLSA said in a recent note, after lowering the mortgage loan-to-value limit to 50 percent from 60 percent for the Seoul metropolitan area from earlier this month.
Financial Supervisory Service Governor Kim Jong-chang said last week that the regulator could introduce additional mortgage restrictions if house prices continue to increase, following a surge in mortgage lending in the first half of this year.
South Korean banks are also facing more competition from securities companies, which are allowed to provide credit card settlement services and are replacing banks in mutual fund sales.
The securities companies mostly look set to log strong profits for the quarter, buoyed by rising brokerage fees following a jump in stock market turnover in April and May.
Daily turnover on the main Seoul stock market <.KS11> soared to 10 trillion won in May, helped by active buying from foreign and individual investors, before dropping to 5 trillion won in late June, versus about 4 trillion won a year ago.
Sector leader Samsung Securities <016360.KS>, however, may buck the trend as it lost broking market share to rivals and as rising bond yields in June triggered trading losses. ----------------------------------------------------------
COMPANY PROFIT/LOSS % CHANGE DATE
KB Fin 134.1 N/A July 30
Shinhan <055550.KS> 179.4 -77 July 29
Woori <053000.KS> 213.5 -49 Aug 4
Hana 110.0 -64 July 24
Samsung Sec 64.5 -16 early Aug (No year-ago comparison figure is available for KB because the group was restructured in September) (Additional reporting by Shin Jieun; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
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