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S.Korea c/a surplus 11-yr high as exports rise
Reuters - 1 hour 20 minutes ago
By Seo Eun-kyung and Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, March 30 - South Korea's current account surplus hit an 11-year high in February as monthly exports rose for the first time since mid-2008, underlining the president's optimism that overseas demand is stabilising.
Analysts were more cautious in their assessment of the data released on Monday, suggesting the pick-up in exports owed a lot to the won's <KRW=> 30 percent plunge in the past year and that the global economy was far from being in a recovery.
Still, President Lee Myung-bak was quoted as saying he expected exports to show a further improvement in March.
"So quite contrary to our initial projections, our export market is quickly stabilising," Lee said in an interview with the Financial Times.
The current account -- the broadest measure of foreign trading in goods and services -- swung to a seasonally adjusted $4.24 billion surplus in February, the biggest since February 1998, from a revised deficit of $1.44 billion in January.
The Bank of Korea data showed exports in February alone rose a seasonally adjusted 13 percent from January, breaking six consecutive months of falls. Imports fell 7 percent.
South Korea's regular foreign trade data released by the government is not adjusted for seasonal patterns and so is usually compared with a year earlier. On that basis, exports fell 18.3 percent in February.
A Reuters poll showed that March exports would be 20.2 percent lower than a year earlier, although Lee said the fall would be 17 percent. For Reuters poll [ID:nSEO72589]
The data is due for release on Wednesday.
A central bank official told reporters the current account surplus, before adjustment for seasonal patterns, probably reached a record of nearly $5 billion in March, although he did not provide a seasonally adjusted estimate. [ID:nSEO365289]
The current account data provided a rare bright spot following months of dire economic figures that many analysts suggest shows South Korea is in the midst of its first recession in a decade.
Providing another relative bright spot, the country's top lobby group for large companies said on Monday that confidence among its members had improved, although the majority were still pessimistic about the future. [ID:nSEO109146]
Still, financial markets fell on the perception that the data had been priced in. Investors opted to cash in recent sharp gains and to wait for more clues on the prospects for the global economy.
The main Seoul stock market's benchmark KOSPI <.KS11> fell more than 3 percent but was up nearly 20 percent over the past four weeks, while the won was down 3 percent against the dollar after rising more than 15 percent.
"It seems exports are passing the worst part of this downcycle but a full-swing recovery is still not in the offing," said Goh You-sun, an economist at Daewoo Securities.
Analysts said the won's fall of nearly 30 percent against the dollar in the past year would help the country's current account return to a solid surplus in all of this year after suffering its first annual deficit in 11 years in 2008.
The central bank has forecast that the current account in 2009 would swing to a surplus of $22 billion from a 2008 deficit of $6.41 billion.
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