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New Zealand economy stalls in Q3 - NBNZ survey
 
 
  
 
 Reuters - Wednesday, November 17
 
 
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WELLINGTON, Nov 17 - New Zealand's economy may have contracted in the third quarter as a flat housing market, high unemployment, and slow wages kept consumers cautious, a bank survey showed on Wednesday.
 
The National Bank of New Zealand's regional trends survey, seen as a rough pointer to gross domestic product data, showed economic activity shrank 0.2 percent in the September quarter. That compares with official growth of 0.2 percent in the June quarter and 0.6 percent in the March period.
 
It was the survey's first negative reading since March 2009, when the economy was about to emerge from a 15-month recession.
 
"This survey is domestically oriented and this shows it probably contracted, but the external side should be pulling it up to counter this," said National Bank economist Steve Edwards.
 
The survey showed a rise in activity in eight of 14 regions, with the two smallest regions, West Coast of the South Island and Gisborne on the east cost of the North Island, the strongest performing with 1.2 percent and 1 percent growth respectively.
 
Activity in the major urban centres was mixed with Wellington contracting 0.7 percent but Auckland growing 0.5 percent. Canterbury, which includes the country's second-biggest city Christchurch, severely damaged by a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on Sept. 4, shrank 0.8 percent.
 
Official third quarter GDP data is due on Dec. 23 with early forecasts of around 0.5 percent growth <NZGDP1>. The Reserve Bank of NZ forecast in its September monetary statement growth of 0.8 percent for the quarter.
 
Last month, the RBNZ held its cash rate for a second consecutive review at 3 percent and said further rises would be needed at some stage.
 
Last week, RBNZ governor Alan Bollard cooled expectations of a rate rise any time soon by saying financial markets have read too much into recent labour and other data, and that a high NZ dollar <NZD=D4> would lessen the need for interest rates to rise as much as they might have done.
 
Soft economic data over the past three months have seen analysts trim back expectations of future rate rises, with market pricing implying virtually no chance of a rise at the final monetary statement of the year on Dec. 9 .
 
A Reuters poll has March as the most likely date for a resumption of rate rises. [NZ/POLL]
 
The National Bank of NZ survey showed an average growth rate of 2.3 percent in the year to Sept 30, the strongest in two-and-a-half years.
 
The survey uses 21 indicators, including building permits, retail sales, vehicle registrations, and consumer and business confidence, to determine an overall measure of economic growth.
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
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