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World's tallest tower to open as Dubai faces crisis
AFP - Tuesday, January 5
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Dubai is officially opening the world's tallest tower, a symbol of the Gulf emirate's unbridled ambitions, amid ongoing fears about a financial catastrophe.
DUBAI (AFP) - – Dubai was on Monday to officially open the world's tallest tower, a symbol of the Gulf emirate's unbridled ambitions, amid ongoing fears about a financial catastrophe.
The city state, which borrowed heavily to finance its grandiose projects, is striving to restructure its mountain of debt and face a serious crisis in its once-booming real estate sector. Related article: History of Dubai mega projects
Some observers now appear more confident about Dubai's ability to navigate its way out of the crisis, after many predicted bankruptcy when it requested a debt repayments standstill for its largest group Dubai World in late November.
Dubai was bailed out with a last-minute lifeline of 10 billion dollars from neighbouring emirate Abu Dhabi, which enabled Dubai to pay its imminent debt.
"We are much more confident about the situation of Dubai now, after Abu Dhabis support as well as the comprehensive restructuring plan, than we were a one month ago," said Mahdi Mattar, chief economist at Shuaa Capital.
"The debt story is not as bad as the market initially thought, when investors were assuming the worst," he told AFP.
Dubai World began negotiations with its creditors in late December with the hope of reaching an agreement over restructuring debt of 22 billion dollars, owed by its troubled subsidiaries.
The talks followed Dubai World's payment of 4.1 billion dollars in maturing bonds owed by its real estate arm, Nakheel, thanks to Abu Dhabi's help.
But the emirate, which has little oil resources, has to deal with a total debt burden amounting to around 100 billion dollars, according to estimates.
Its fortunes have turned around as the global financial crisis dried up global finance which was crucial to feed its rapid economic growth, mainly in real estate.
"In Dubai where 90 percent of the population are expatriates, 50 percent of the work force is real estate and construction-based," said Saud Masud, senior real estate analyst at UBS bank in Dubai.
He estimated a drop of eight percent in Dubai's population, which was reportedly around two million before the crisis, while he expected a two percent drop in 2010.
This decrease in population is expected to deepen the decline in property prices in Dubai which dived 50 percent in 2009, he said.
"There is over supply as more houses are being handed over. With population outflows of 10 percent over 2009-2010 and handovers of roughly 40,000 units during the same period, we would not be surprised to see residential over supply of 30 percent by end of 2010," he said.
This deterioration has triggered an 80 percent drop in projects in 2009 compared with the previous year.
"Big projects have been delayed indefinitely. If investors dont pay developers, they in turn will struggle to pay contractors," he said.
Vacant villas and apartment blocks make now up part of Dubai's landscape, while the most grandiose projects have been put on hold, including a one-kilometre (0.62 mile) high tower expected to dwarf Dubai's completed Burj Dubai, whose final height is more than 800 metres (2,640 feet). Related article: The world's highest towers.
But Dubai's debt crisis does not mean the emirate will sink in the desert sands, analysts agreed.
"Dubai will not be wiped off the map. It is a very important centre and model for the rest of the Middle East," said Masud.
"Dubais infrastructure is unique in the Middle East, it is a regional financial and tourist hub. The challenge is how to come out of the downturn, by diversifying the economy and finding other levers of growth than real estate," he added.
Mattar agreed that Dubai has built an infrastructure "second to none in the region," positioning the emirate as the regional service hub.
"As oil prices remain at these levels and the global economy recovers, the situation of the whole region is on a growth recovery path -- a plus for Dubai," he added.
The tower opening ceremony kicks off at 8:00 pm (1600 GMT), featuring fireworks and a light show. It is held on the day Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashed al-Maktoum took office as the ruler of Dubai in 2006. Related article: Dubai ruler's vision reaches skywards.
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