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Windows 7 may help kickstart delayed corporate spend
Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:41pm EDT
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By Gabriel Madway and Ian Sherr
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Computer makers hoping for Microsoft Corp's new Windows 7 operating system to free up a long-awaited corporate spending spree may have to wait until the second half of next year.
As the world's top software maker prepared for its biggest product launch in a decade on Thursday, analysts said PC vendors already stood to benefit from a hardware refresh cycle next year. Microsoft's new, supposedly more stable platform should serve as further impetus to upgrade aging machines.
Industry watchers say Windows 7 may also have a short-term impact on PC sales to consumers -- potentially a slight benefit to consumer-oriented players such as Hewlett-Packard and Acer Inc.
But many large businesses will look to 2010 and beyond to buy, preferring to wait and see.
"Vista was so bad that nobody moved to it," said Needham & Co analyst Richard Kugele.
"Now, with the operating system no longer being a stumbling block, you can actually deal with the hardware problem and be comfortable that the OS isn't an issue."
The expected refresh cycle that is being touted by the likes of HP and Dell Inc would likely take place regardless of Microsoft's new offering, analysts say. That's because of a pent-up need to replace old hardware -- a cycle put off as budgets shrank in the downturn.
But no one knows how robust it will be.
Research group Gartner expects commercial PC sales to rise 10 percent in 2010 and an additional 13 percent in 2011, as businesses replace 4- and 5-year-old computers. Early, positive reviews for Windows 7 should give businesses a further nudge.
As Vista ends its nearly three years of life on the shelf, only 10-15 percent of enterprises have migrated, analysts say. The rest remain on the 8-year-old Windows XP.
The entire computer food chain, from chipmakers like Intel Corp and Advanced Micro Devices to disk drive makers like Seagate Technology, stands to benefit from a robust push by companies to replace PCs.
"They have to replace these aging machines," said Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa, adding that Windows 7 might accelerate the upgrade cycle for corporations.
GOING UP THE FOOD CHAIN
HP's shares are up more than 30 percent this year and Dell's nearly 50 percent, as the PC market recovery takes hold and investors anticipate a bump in corporate spending on computers next year.
Goldman Sachs expects IT spending to rise 4 percent in 2010 to 320.4 million units, reversing an estimated 8 percent slide this year. It sees PC unit growth of 9 percent in 2010. Continued...
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