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India inflation at seven-month low
AFP - 31 minutes ago
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India inflation at seven-month low
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NEW DELHI (AFP) - – India's inflation rate hit a seven-month low in August, but analysts said Tuesday prices were still rising too quickly and the central bank could tighten monetary policy this week.
The Reserve Bank of India's Wholesale Price Index -- the main inflation indicator -- dropped by over a percentage point to 8.51 percent year-on-year in August, from 9.78 percent the previous month, official figures showed.
The data came ahead of a key meeting Thursday of the Reserve Bank of India, which has raised interest rates four times since March to curb prices.
The fall in inflation to its lowest level since January came after government statisticians expanded the basket of goods used to calculate the index to 676 items from 435 and used a new base year of 2004-05.
The new index includes such goods as microwave ovens, computers, washing machines and scooters to create a more up-to-date cost-of-living snapshot of the economy, which grew 8.8 percent in the fiscal first quarter to June.
"The new series will give a robust, truer picture of the Indian economy," Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said, releasing the new index.
Under the old measure, which had a base year of 1993-1994, inflation slowed only slightly in August to 9.5 percent year-on-year from 9.96 percent in July.
Even with new index showing a bigger drop in inflation, "the message remains the same -- prices are rising too fast for comfort," said Frederic Neumann, HSBC's co-head of Asian economics.
"Inflationary pressures are still there in the economy, but I do hope annualised inflation will come down," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, adding the central bank would "take appropriate measures at the appropriate time."
The Congress party-led government has been under fierce opposition attack over high prices that have caused hardship, especially among the hundreds of millions of poor.
Neumann and some other analysts said the bank was likely to raise at least one of its two benchmark rates on Thursday by a quarter point.
The bank's repo rate at which it lends to commercial banks now stands at 5.75 percent while the reverse repo, the rate it pays to banks for deposits, is 4.50 percent -- still far below historic highs.
Inflation is "still very high and the Reserve Bank may not deviate from its ongoing stance of tightening monetary policy," said Shanto Ghosh, principal India economist at global consultancy Deloitte.
But others said the uncertain global economic recovery and signs in the new index that manufacturing inflation is not as big a problem as earlier thought might give the bank reason to pause in its rate tightening cycle.
Australia, Malaysia and the Philippines have all kept interest rates on hold in recent weeks to bolster their economies as the global outlook has become cloudier.
"There is some slowing down in this inflation scenario and with global risks having increased there may be no need to press the pedal hard on interest rates this week," D.K. Joshi, chief economist at credit ratings agency Crisil, told AFP.
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