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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Australia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Instant view-Kan wins Japan ruling party leadership vote Reuters - Tuesday, September 14 Send IM Story Print TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan defeated powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa in a party leadership vote on Tuesday, but now must try to unify the party while coping with a strong yen, weak economy, big public debt and divided parliament. KEY POINTS: * Kan won with 721 out of 1,212 points in what had been expected to be a cliffhanger vote. * Kan won narrowly among members of parliament but scored a more convincing margin among local lawmakers and the party rank-and-file. *************************************************************** COMMENTARY: ANDREW COLQUHOUN, FITCH SOVEREIGN RATINGS ANALYST, HONG KONG "I don't see the ballot result as a key near-term credit rating driver. A key factor that supports Japan's ratings with a stable outlook is the Japanese sovereign's ongoing ability to fund itself quite cheaply in the JGB market. That funding flexibility is a key ratings support. "However we have stressed the fact that Japan is increasingly an outlier among high-grade sovereigns in not having a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy. It's too early to say but Kan's victory in the leadership ballot may improve his room for manoeuvre to introduce such a fiscal plan. "If the DPJ splits, then there would be more political uncertainty which would make it more difficult to see a fiscal plan happening in the medium term -- which would tend to be negative. "More political noise would mean less likelihood of a fiscal strategy being put in place, which would tend to be a negative factor for sovereign credit worthiness." MIKITAKA MASUYAMA, PROFESSOR, NATIONAL GRADUATE INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES, TOKYO "With Kan, there is no outlook for a breakthrough in parliamentary affairs ... The only thing that's certain is that politics will not be stable from here. "This won't be the end of Ozawa. He won this many votes from the parliamentarians ... The only way he can get things done once the parliamentary session begins is by relying on these people." MASAYUKI OTANI, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT SECURITIES JAPAN, INC "The result probably won't be a disappointment to the stock market even though Kan won, as he has emphasised defeating deflation and dollar/yen moves are also calming down for now. "Kan might have a tough time bringing his party members together, but the stock market's focus will likely shift to future policy action rather than just the immediate fallout from the vote." YUUKI SAKURAI, CEO & PRESIDENT, FUKUOKA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT "Whoever won, there would be much difficulty binding the party together again, and in that sense Kan has to adopt some of the agenda raised by Ozawa or his supporters. It may mean it's not very good news for the bond market. "Kan may have to put more emphasis on economic stimulus, meaning he may have to issue more Japanese government bonds. So even though bond market investors were thinking that he was friendly to the bond market it's a kind of negative news for bonds. But, having said that, it is far better than Ozawa becoming prime minister." "The yen may go to 82 or, who knows, it may even go into the 70 range. So he has to show to Japanese entrepreneurs that he is trying to soften the damage of the strong yen." KOJI FUKAYA, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST JAPAN, CREDIT SUISSE "The yen reacted as investors saw less of a chance of forex intervention under Kan than Ozawa. But I think that was an overreaction because Japan could step into the market anyway if the dollar falls near 80 yen or below. "Kan is likely to press ahead with fiscal reform, including sales tax hikes. But this could weigh on domestic consumption so Japan may have no choice but to continue to rely on exports to prop up its economy and resort to forex intervention to protect exporters from further yen gains." KATSUTOSHI INADOME, FIXED-INCOME STRATEGIST, MITSUBISHI UFJ MORGAN STANLEY SECURITIES, TOKYO "There will be two key points for the bond market to watch going forward: first the fiscal and second the political implications of the outcome. "Ozawa was seen as more inclined to boost spending while Kan was considered more fiscally frugal. But Kan may end up spending in the longer run as the economic stimulus steps approved last weekend may need to be followed up with additional measures. Kan may also have to place Ozawa's associates in key party posts, which could loosen his fiscal austerity stance. "From a political perspective the market could remain volatile due to uncertainty if differences within the party are not quickly buried after the bruising vote. JGBs are rising in an initial reaction, but today's outcome may not anchor down yields in the longer term." KOICHI NAKANO, PROFESSOR, SOPHIA UNIVERSITY, TOKYO "I think he will have to pay serious attention to Ozawa and his crew but more to his crew than Ozawa himself. He will probably reach out to the younger members of Ozawa's camp. Ozawa will not leave immediately -- he wouldn't want to appear a bad loser. He will prefer to see what Kan does with his followers. I guess the next occasion is when Kan's support rates go down and then there will be an opportunity for Ozawa to play another trick. I don't think he will be finished until he is dead and buried. At the end of the day, he is a destroyer. "The Liberal Democratic Party may feel it is easier to deal with Kan. Ozawa is a formidable operator and they would be wary of Ozawa. An overture to Kan will be more forthcoming because he is less threatening. "But he must act swiftly ... His time is limited." JONATHAN ALLUM, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MIZUHO INTERNATIONAL, LONDON "Since Mr. Kan's victory was expected its should not have a significant short term effect on markets. Immediately after the announcement there was a slight strengthening of the yen but this is probably of only transient interest. In the longer term I expect the implications are positive or, to put it more accurately, the implications of an Ozawa victory would have been negative. If Ozawa had triumphed, he would have been the third Prime Minister in 2010 and the sixth to follow Mr. Koizumi - of which only one actually won a general election. This rate of turnover is absurd and brings Japanese democracy into disrepute, providing international investors with yet another reason to give the place a wide berth. The DPJ has made much of its aim of transferring political power from unelected bureaucrats to elected politicians - this is not possible if the latter change every few months." JESPER KOLL, DIRECTOR OF EQUITY RESEARCH, JP MORGAN SECURITIES JAPAN "With Kan it was always going to be another committee being set up, another study group being formed before you start to get some decisive action. There was a sense that with Ozawa you were likely to get some kind of action. "The big question is whether Kan can jump beyond his shadow and actually prove himself as a reformer, as somebody who can entice risk-takers, entrepreneurs who actually go out and create jobs." SHUJI SUGATA, MANAGER, MITSUBISHI CORP FUTURES, TOKYO "If Ozawa had won, the yen might have been sold on deepening political confusion, but Kan's victory was more or less already factored in and will not change the broad trend of dollar weakness and yen strength. "Kan's top priority is what he will say and do about the exchange rate, with the yen renewing 15-year highs." CHRISTIAN LAWRENCE, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, RBC, LONDON "The yen got a boost from the result, though there had been rumours beforehand that Ozawa's bid was likely to fail. Clearly the market viewed the result as yen positive, and the yen is likely to continue drifting higher both against the dollar and on the crosses. Kan's reappointment will pave the way for the market to pare back expectations about a rising risk of intervention." 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