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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (2) Full Focus Editor's choice A selection of our top photos from the past 48 hours. Full Article Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Near-Earth asteroid passes over Atlantic Ocean 27 Jun 2011 UPDATE 2-Wildfire reaches US Los Alamos nuclear facility 27 Jun 2011 Gay marriage foes appeal ruling on gay U.S. judge 27 Jun 2011 Lady Gaga sued over Japan earthquake charity bracelets 27 Jun 2011 US Supreme Court to decide police GPS tracking case 27 Jun 2011 Discussed 221 Biden deficit-cut talks hit impasse: Rep. Cantor 138 CBO sees government benefits swamping U.S. economy 112 Fragile economy pushed Obama to tap oil reserves Watched A Tokyo-Paris flight in under three hours on the horizon Fri, Jun 24 2011 Hefner's revenge; Ryan Reynolds stops traffic Fri, Jun 17 2011 Supreme Court: Game on! Mon, Jun 27 2011 South China Sea disputes could lead to war in Asia: think tank Tweet Share this Email Print Related News China's Wen signals doubt inflation goal can be met Mon, Jun 27 2011 China urges U.S. to stay out of sea dispute Wed, Jun 22 2011 China to boost coastal forces amid sea tensions Fri, Jun 17 2011 China sends ship "to protect sovereignty" in disputed sea Thu, Jun 16 2011 Kissinger, Huntsman: U.S., China need cyber detente Tue, Jun 14 2011 Analysis & Opinion China makes an uneasy saviour for Europe Transcript of Carlos Ghosn interview Related Topics World » China » Australia » By James Grubel CANBERRA | Tue Jun 28, 2011 3:33am EDT CANBERRA (Reuters) - Risks are growing that incidents at sea involving China could lead to war in Asia, potentially drawing in the United States and other powers, an Australian think tank warned on Tuesday. The Lowy Institute said in a report that the Chinese military's risk-taking behavior in the South and East China Seas, along with the country's resource needs and greater assertiveness, have raised the chances of an armed conflict. "The sea lanes of Indo-Pacific Asia are becoming more crowded, contested and vulnerable to armed strife. Naval and air forces are being strengthened amid shifting balances of economic strategic weight," report authors Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs wrote. "China's frictions with the United States, Japan and India are likely to persist and intensify. As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict," the report said. The study on major powers and maritime security in Indo-Pacific Asia was published as China prepares to unveil its first aircraft carrier, perhaps this week, a development that has added to worries in the region about China's military expansion and reach. Earlier this month, China sent its biggest civilian patrol ship to the South China Sea. That rattled the Philippines, which makes competing claims to some waters thought to hold vast oil and gas reserves. On Monday, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution that deplored China's use of force against Vietnamese and Philippine ships in South China Sea. Senator Jim Webb, chair of an east Asian and Pacific affairs subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said "a growing number of nations around the South China Sea are now voicing serious concerns about China's pattern of intimidation." "DANGER ZONE" Ian Storey, an expert on maritime security in Asia, said the report was a "balanced and credible assessment" of the risks of a military clash in the South China Sea as "competition over territorial claims, maritime boundaries and natural resources heats up, and as China adopts more aggressive tactics." "The complete absence of confidence-building measures and conflict prevention mechanisms between the various claimants suggests that it is only a question of time before an incident at sea escalates into a more serious confrontation, with worrying implications for regional stability," said Storey, a security analyst at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. Medcalf and Heinrichs said more maritime patrols and intrusive surveillance, nationalism and resources disputes will together make it harder to manage arguments over maritime sovereignty. "All of these factors are making Asia a danger zone for incidents at sea: close-range encounters involving vessels and aircraft from competing powers, typically in sensitive or contested zones," the report said. The report detailed tensions between Beijing and Tokyo, which stemmed from an April 2010 Chinese naval exercise near the Japanese islands of Okinawa and were exacerbated by Japan's arrest of a Chinese fisherman whose trawler had rammed a coastguard vessel. Those incidents provoked a diplomatic crisis during which China cut its exports of crucial rare earth minerals to Japan, the United States' closest ally in the region. Despite initial signs of warmer bilateral ties following the March tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan, a long-running dispute over a chain of isles which are close to potentially significant oil and gas reserves. "Helicopter buzzing incidents have continued, with Japan deploring as especially insensitive an instance that occurred in the weeks following the March disaster," the report said. It said Beijing has caused concern in Southeast Asia over its "core interest" claim on the South China Sea and in Australia about China's possible future security behavior, while the emergence of competition between India and China at sea is "only a matter of time." Medcalf and Heinrichs said new efforts were needed to build regional confidence and to involve China in a continued military dialogue with the United States and Japan. They also said maritime security hotlines were needed between the U.S. and China, and Japan and China, to allow real-time responses to any incidents. (Reporting by John Chalmers in Singapore; Editing by Daniel Magnowski) World China Australia Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (2) mgunn wrote: Risks are growing that incidents involving (or not) the US could lead to war around the world… beyond the 3 we’re already in. Jun 27, 2011 12:08am EDT -- Report as abuse josh2012 wrote: that is totally nonsense. China navy didn’t have the guts to wage a war. Jun 27, 2011 12:13am EDT -- Report as abuse See All Comments » Add Your Comment Social Stream (What's this?) © Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Analyst Research Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Super Lawyers Attorney Rating Service Reuters on Facebook Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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