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Diplomats: Iran's enrichment program stagnates
By GEORGE JAHN,Associated Press Writer AP - Wednesday, August 26
VIENNA - Iran's output of enriched uranium is stagnating, diplomats said Tuesday, suggesting the country may be running short the material needed for producing nuclear fuel or the fissile core of warheads.
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The diplomats _ who demanded anonymity because their information was confidential _ emphasized that the possibility Iran was running out of uranium oxide was only one of several possible explanations of why it had not increased its production of enriched uranium since May.
But they said it seemed unlikely the Islamic Republic had deliberately decided to curb its production. They noted that, despite the stagnation in output, Iran continued over the past three months to expand its capabilities by installing hundreds more of the centrifuges that spin uranium hexafluoride gas derived from uranium oxide into enriched uranium.
With Iran under strict U.N. embargoes and on an international watch list meant to cripple its ability to import nuclear materials illegally, it could find it difficult to procure enough uranium oxide to feed its enrichment program. That, in turn, would deal a blow to its stated goal of expanding enrichment to the point where it can supply fuel for a nationwide nuclear network _ and reflect the success of U.N sanctions.
The existence of a secret Iranian enrichment program built on black market technology was revealed seven years ago and since then the country has continued to expand it with only a few interruptions as it works toward its stated goal of a 50,000-centrifuge enrichment plan.
Iran is under three sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions for refusing to freeze uranium enrichment. These were imposed out of fears Iran is using the pretext of building a peaceful nuclear program _ including enrichment to low levels suited for making nuclear fuel _ to eventually make weapons-grade enriched uranium.
In its last report on Iran in June, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that nearly 5,000 centrifuges were operating at Iran's cavernous underground enriching facility at Natanz as of May. Diplomats said Tuesday that had expanded to about 6,000 by last month.
The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security recently estimated that, even taking the 5,000-centrifuge figure as a basis, Iran could accumulate enough material to produce weapons-grade uranium for two warheads by February 2010.
Iran steadfastly refuses to stop enriching despite the U.N sanctions. But it is believed to depend on rapidly diminishing outside sources of uranium oxide, with domestic mining yielding only relatively small quantities of inferior ore.
The International Atomic Energy Agency and independent experts believe Iran's rapidly expanding uranium enrichment program has been built on 600 tons of so-called "yellowcake," or uranium oxide, that it imported from South Africa during the 1970s as part of ambitious plans by the former regime of Shah Reza Pahlavi to build a network of nuclear reactors.
In the enrichment process, uranium oxide is processed into uranium hexafluoride which then is spun and re-spun to varying degrees of enrichment, with low enriched uranium used for nuclear fuel and upper-end high enriched for nuclear weapons.
Extrapolating on statistics contained in the IAEA's November report on Iran, the Institute for Science and International Security, the Washington-based think tank, said these indicated that, by that date, Iran had used up just under three-quarters of its original South African supply.
"The next six months stand to be revealing," the think tank's study said, noting that Iran is likely to reserve perhaps as much as 100 tons of its South African uranium stock for its Arak heavy water nuclear reactor, which will be fueled by natural uranium once completed.
Quoting from the relevant U.N. Security Council sanctions on Iran, the think tank said they ban exports to the Islamic Republic of all "items, materials, equipment, goods and technology" that could contribute to its enrichment activities, including uranium ore.
In addition, transfers of uranium ore in quantities greater than 500 kilograms _ 1,100 pounds _ annually are subject to close scrutiny of the Nuclear Supplies Group of countries exporting atomic technology.
"These restrictions effectively close the door on legal imports by Iran of significant quantities of uranium ore," said ISIS.
One of the diplomats _ who like the others who commented for this article is accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency and closely follows the enrichment issue _ said that the international community has for months been closely watching Iran in anticipation it will try to secure uranium oxide through illicit channels.
The agency next reports on Iran sometime this week, ahead of a meeting of its 35-nation board starting Sept. 7.
___
On the net: http://www.iaea.org
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