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WRAPUP 1-S.Korea's govt says economy not out of the woods
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WRAPUP 1-S.Korea's govt says economy not out of the woods
Reuters - Thursday, May 7
* S.Korea April forex reserves up most in over 3 years
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* Current account surplus seen at above $3 bln for April
* Trade balance seen staying in surplus in May
* President Lee calls on firms to boost spending
By Cheon Jong-woo and Seo Eun-kyung
SEOUL, May 7 - South Korea's government warned that its economy was not out of the woods and said it would continue policies to fire up growth even though its currency hoard grew in April in the latest sign that Asia's fourth-largest economy is improving.
Both President Lee Myung-bak and the finance ministry on Thurday cautioned over a nascent recovery, pointing to global economic uncertainty and persistently poor domestic demand.
"The government's massive fiscal spending over the past year helped the economy recover to the current level. Now it's time for the private sector to take the initiative," President Lee Myung-bak said in a statement released after hosting an emergency economic policy meeting on Thursday.
The finance ministry predicted improved industrial output and a more than $3 billion current account surplus for April as well as another trade surplus for May. [ID:nSEW000085]
The optimistic forecasts followed robust output and exports data and pre-crisis levels of consumer and business sentiment, which sparked hopes for an earlier-than-expected turnaround for Asia's fourth-largest economy.
Hopes of a recovery have pushed South Korean shares and the currency sharply higher. Seoul shares <.KS11> have gained about 40 percent and the Korean won <KRW=> rallied nearly 25 percent since March.
"The government believes what it could do has been done and wants to pass the ball to the private sector. I think the economy is ready to stand on its own feet now," said Goh You-sun, an economist at Daewoo Securities.
"We will see a full recovery late this year from the sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of last year and there will be no more rate cuts down the road."
The government pledged stimulus measures worth 70 trillion won , while the Bank of Korea slashed interest rates by 3.25 percentage points from October to February.
The central bank next reviews rates on May 12 after pausing its unique rate-cutting campaign for two consecutive months.
LIQUIDITY LIFELINE
The finance ministry reassured investors that the government would not absorb liquidity soon as the economy still needed a lifeline, although it feared another bubble in the property and stock markets.
"As the economy remains still sluggish, liquidity withdrawals would force it to contract further ... the government will maintain the current policy until the economy gets better," Yoon Jong-won, director general of the ministry's economic policy bureau, told a briefing.
But Yoon said that the government was closely monitoring money markets as worries about excessive funds on the markey had emerged on a jump in short-term money supply and as funds flow into stocks and property.
Central bank data showed that the nation's foreign exchange reserves rose by $6.14 billion to $212.48 billion at the end of April, marking their biggest monthly rise in more than three years, aided by increased investment gains and a $3 billion dollar sovereign bond sale. [ID:nSEO142013]
The data was the latest evidence of improvement in the country's balance of payments, further easing concerns about its ability to repay foreign currency debt.
"Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise further on a healthy trade account and stabilisation of the global financial market,"said Kim Jae-eun, an economist at Hana Daetoo Securities.
"That will keep supporting the won although the currency's rise will be limited by doubts about the speed of the global economic recovery."
The government may also intervene to curb the won's rally as it could sap exporters' competitiveness, another analyst said.
"Unlike last year, we're having more money inflows and less outflows, sparking the upward spiral of the won. The government may want to do something to protect exporters," said Song Jae-hyeok, an economist at SK Securities.
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