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S&P warns policy gridlock could hit Japan rating
AFP - Tuesday, July 13
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S&P warns policy gridlock could hit Japan rating
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TOKYO (AFP) - – Standard & Poor's warned Monday it might lower Japan's credit rating if Tokyo fails to implement "meaningful" fiscal reform plans, after a weekend election raised the spectre of policy gridlock.
In a statement, the ratings agency said that "stabilizing the political environment is a key challenge for Japan to implement meaningful and sustainable fiscal consolidation" following Sunday's Upper House election.
Having gone into the election seeking a stable political base to tackle the nation's massive debt, new Prime Minister Naoto Kan's government lost its Upper House majority.
Kan's Democratic Party of Japan now holds 106 out of the 242 seats in the House of Councillors.
Japan's fifth premier in four years, Kan has put fiscal discipline at the core of his agenda to fix the country's finances and slash the world's biggest public debt, which is almost twice the size of the economy.
But the DPJ-led government now lacks the momentum needed to push the relevant legislation through the Diet, potentially delaying Kan's plans as his party scrambles for new allies.
"A hung parliament is the most likely outcome, as leaders of opposition parties are rejecting the possibility of joining the coalition. A hung parliament would make it very difficult for the government to push through major policies," S&P said.
Necessary reforms of the public sector, pension system and tax policy would be difficult to implement and "potentially act as a negative factor on the sovereign ratings," S&P said.
It added that a party leadership election in September could also affect policy.
"Although (Kan) expressed his determination not to resign after the election, he may be pressured to change the current leadership to take responsibility for the election outcome, and this could destabilize the leadership of the DPJ as well as the government."
Standard & Poor's in January warned that it might cut its rating on Japanese government bonds, which could raise the country's borrowing costs.
Japan's huge public debt is a legacy of massive stimulus spending during the economic "lost decade" of the 1990s, as well as a series of pump-priming packages to tackle the recession which began in 2008.
It crawled out of a severe year-long recession in 2009 but a recovery in the world's second largest economy remains fragile with deflation, high public debt and weak domestic demand all concerns for policymakers.
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