InfoAnda - Shares up in China, elsewhere, but will it last?

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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: Shares up in China, elsewhere, but will it last? By ELAINE KURTENBACH,AP Business Writer AP - Saturday, February 21 SHANGHAI - Never mind plunging share prices across the globe and the daily barrage of gloomy economic news. Emerging market giants China, Brazil and Russia have so far this year eluded the depressing declines seen elsewhere. ADVERTISEMENT In a suitable beginning for what by Asian lunar calendars is the "Year of the Bull," by Friday the Shanghai Composite Index had gained about 24 percent this year _ even as the Dow Jones industrials fell to a six-year low. The MICEX stock exchange _ where most of Russia's trading takes place _ has added 12 percent this year, most of it in the past two weeks and linked to currency movements. Brazil's Ibovespa index has regained about a third since hitting a two-year low on Oct. 27 and is up nearly 6 percent so far in 2009. With both the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nikkei 225 stock average down about 15 percent so far this year, such trends look pretty good. Some market watchers think these gains are the first glimmer of hope for the slumping world economy even if India has yet to join its so called "BRIC" nation counterparts in the rally. An easing of the slump in China's manufacturing and record bank lending in January has also fed hopes that Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) economic stimulus package might help counter the global recession. But hold the champagne _ many of the recent gains may not be sustainable, other experts say. Whether in Russia, where currency trends play a big role, in Shanghai, where companies appear to be funneling bank loans into the market, or in Brazil, where market fortunes are closely tied to China, the rebounds could be short-lived. The fragility of China's bull-year rebound became apparent this week, after investors dumped stocks following reports that the banking regulator would investigate suspicions that a substantial part of the 1.62 trillion yuan ($237 billion) in loans extended in January went into stock trading. Such shenanigans not only are illegal, but they also would do little to create jobs or stimulate economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.7 percent on Wednesday, its biggest loss for 2009, before bouncing back modestly to close Friday at 2,261.48. China's "mini-bull market," as some call it, runs against data showing the economy is still slowing: exports were down nearly 18 percent in January and foreign direct investment fell nearly 33 percent. In Shanghai, where foreigners are excluded from most trading, surges in liquidity are often taken as cues to jump back into the market, regardless of other trends. That includes inveterate investors like metals parts trader Zhang Yizheng, who plunged back in early this year after losing more than 1 million yuan (about $150,000) in the long correction that kicked in after the Shanghai Composite hit its peak of 6,124.04 in mid-October 2007. "The best way to survive is to join in the speculation," Zhang said. "I'm still alive, which means I still have a chance to get my money back!" Russia's recent rally, likewise, was indicative less of optimism than a slight respite in the ruble's slide, which had raised doubts about the ability of Russian companies to repay foreign currency debts. Yet, surging debt in neighboring Ukraine, rising risks of corporate defaults in Eastern Europe and weak oil prices also overshadow Russia's markets and help keep alive the fear of a repeat of last year's dramatic sell-offs. "Quite clearly, the market cannot continue rising in isolation," Chris Weafer, a Moscow-based strategist for Uralsib investment bank, said in a note to investors. India, where the benchmark Sensex has fallen 9.5 percent this year, has plenty of problems of its own _ political uncertainty, a huge fiscal deficit and the reversal of the flood of foreign investment that helped fuel its recent bull run, economists say. Compared with Russia and India, the other non-Chinese members of the BRIC nations, Brazil may be a better barometer of potential growth because many of its largest companies depend on exports of commodities, such as iron ore, to China. Brazil's markets "are very subject to the theory that China has the capacity to lead a rebound, and that it has already embarked on that," said Enrique Alvarez, head of research for Latin American financial markets at IDEAGlobal in New York. That view is also shared by analysts at JPMorgan who wrote in a recent report that "emerging markets were the last into the recession and will be the first out." But for a less rosy snapshot of world sentiment, look across China's border to Hong Kong's more open market, where many mainland shares are traded and where the benchmark Hang Seng index has fallen nearly 10 percent since the year began. Mainland bourses, largely restricted to foreign investors and heavily regulated, often move out of sync with global markets. Shares in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest lender, for example, have gained 8 percent in Shanghai trading. In Hong Kong, they're down 20 percent. "Since when was the Chinese stock market really linked to the real economy? Never! It's always been a capital driven market," said Chen Huiqin, at Huatai Securities. __ Associated Press Writers Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow, Erika Kinetz in Mumbai, Theresa Bradley in Mexico City and Stan Lehman in Sao Paulo contributed to this report. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Recommend this article Average (0 votes) Sign in to recommend this article » Most Recommended Stories » Related Articles: China's Economy FOREX-Dollar firmer, euro pares losses but vulnerableReuters - Saturday, February 21 Survey: China still key factory base amid slumpAP - Saturday, February 21 UK's Prudential sells Taiwan insurance businessReuters - Saturday, February 21 Shares up in China, elsewhere, but will it last?AP - Saturday, February 21 Related Articles: Business Vale eyes record iron ore exports to China in Q1Reuters - 1 hour 7 minutes ago US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Bank worries trip Wall St at openReuters - 1 hour 21 minutes ago FOREX-U.S. dollar gains broadly on safe-haven bidReuters - 1 hour 25 minutes ago Wall Street heads toward lower openingAP - 1 hour 37 minutes ago BofA, Citi shares fall on nationalization fearsReuters - 39 minutes ago Related Full Coverage China Economy china economy All Full Coverage Most Popular – Business Viewed Malaria: Spoonful of sugar could save thousands of children Huge gamma-ray blast spotted in space Seductive chemicals hidden in sloppy kisses UBS admits tax fraud after US charges Debate flares over Obama housing plan View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! 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