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WRAPUP 1-House data, Australia hike boost S.Korea rate rise bets
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WRAPUP 1-House data, Australia hike boost S.Korea rate rise bets
Reuters - Wednesday, October 7
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* South Korean Sept house prices up for 6th month - lender
* Mortgage loan demand strong for Q4 - central bank
* Australia's surprising move could embolden Bank of Korea
* Reuters poll shows more analysts see rate rise in 2009
By Seo Eun-kyung and Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, Oct 6 - South Korea's latest house price data boosted chances of an interest rate rise as soon as next month, with Australia's surprise tightening on Tuesday seen helping the central bank overcome resistance to policy change.
September house prices rose for a sixth consecutive month and at the fastest monthly pace in 17 months, according to data compiled by the country's biggest lender while a central bank report heralded a rise in mortgage borrowing this quarter.
Analysts said the data, along with the Australian central bank's quarter point rate rise, would embolden the Bank of Korea to follow suit, despite government pressure to keep borrowing rates at a record low for some time.
Bond and stock prices in Seoul fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia's move, the first rate rise by a Group of 20 central bank since the financial turmoil unleashed by the collapse of the Lehman Brothers more than a year ago. [ID:nSEO189878]
The won edged up in defiance of reported dollar purchases by the authorities.
South Korea's government has argued that economic recovery is not yet strong enough to withdraw policy stimulus while also pointing to the need to coordinate such pull-back among G20 nations.
The central bank, however, has made clear it wants to prevent record low interest rates from contributing to a possible asset price bubble.
"The steady rise in housing prices amid record-low interest rates could prompt people to borrow more than they can afford. This is what worries the BOK the most," said Park Jong-youn, a fixed-income analyst at Woori Investment & Securities.
A Reuters poll, conducted before the Australian rate rise, showed seven out of 15 analysts expect the Bank of Korea to raise its base rate in November. The rest predicted a raise in the first quarter of 2010. [ID:nSEO122354]
But they were unanimous in forecasting the 7-day repurchase agreement rate <KROCRT=ECI> would remain on hold for an eighth consecutive month at a record-low 2.0 percent after Friday's central bank policy meeting.
Rate rise expectations have been steadily building up with Bank of Korea governor, Lee Seong-tae, warning the central bank could step on the brakes if it was necessary to calm a property boom.
RELIEF FROM POLITICAL BURDEN
Data from Kookmin Bank, the country's largest lender, showed housing prices in September rose 0.7 percent from August, though stayed 0.5 percent below year earlier levels. [ID:nSEV002857]
The central bank said its measure of demand for mortgage stood at 19 for the current quarter, down from 22 in the third quarter but far above a neutral point of zero. [ID:nSEW000151]
Robust earnings at South Korean export-led companies despite the won's <KRW=> sharp recovery against the dollar could also give the Bank of Korea some extra leeway if it does raise interest rates for the first time since August last year.
The won has gained 36 percent against the dollar since hitting an 11-year low in early March but its value against a basket of currencies has risen by a quarter over the period because the dollar has lost against most currencies.
A brisk third-quarter earnings estimate by technology giant Samsung Electronics Co. <005930.KS> and an upbeat earnings view from tyre maker Hankook Tire Co. <000240.KS> suggested South Korea Inc. was sound enough to weather the strengthening won. [nT89846] [ID:nSEO154072]
(Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo, Marie-France Han and Rhee So-eui; Editing by Jonathan Thatcher and Tomasz Janowski)
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