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China faces wave of unrest in 2009
Mon Jan 5, 2009 11:55pm EST
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By Chris Buckley
BEIJING (Reuters) - China faces surging protests and riots in 2009 as rising unemployment stokes discontent among migrant workers and university graduates, a state-run magazine said in a blunt warning about unrest in this sensitive year.
The unusually stark report was in this week's Outlook (Liaowang) Magazine, issued by the official Xinhua news agency, which laid out the hazards facing China and its ruling Communist Party as growth falters during the global economic crisis.
"Without doubt, now we're entering a peak period for mass incidents," a senior Xinhua reporter, Huang Huo, told the magazine, using the official euphemism for riots and protests.
"In 2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the Party and government."
President Hu Jintao has vowed to make China a "harmonious society," but his promise is being strained by rising tension over shrinking jobs and incomes, as well as long-standing discontent over corruption and land seizures.
China is also facing a year of politically tense anniversaries, especially the 20th year since the June 1989 armed crackdown on pro-democracy protests. That anniversary has already galvanized a campaign by dissidents and rights advocates demanding deep democratic reforms.
Huang said many Chinese citizens had shed their reluctance to confront officials.
"Social conflicts have already formed a certain social, mass base so that as soon as there is an appropriate fuse it always swiftly explodes and clashes escalate quickly," said Huang.
Outlook Magazine arrived with subscribers on Tuesday and the article also appeared on Xinhua's website (www.xinhuanet.com). China's leaders are usually secretive about threats to their control and the unusually blunt public warning may be intended to help snap officials to attention.
JOBLESS AND BITTER
The biggest threats to China's stability will come from graduating university students, facing a shrinking job market and diminished incomes, and from a tide of migrant laborers who have lost their jobs as export-driven factories have shut.
Factory closures, sackings and difficulties paying social security had already unleashed a surge of protests, the report said. Officials in provinces that have provided tens of millions of low-paid workers for coastal factories have reported a leap in the number returning to their farm homes without work.
State statistical authorities estimated that close to 10 million rural migrant workers had lost their jobs, the magazine said, without specifying when the sackings happened.
Including students who graduated in 2008 and had not found work, there would be more than 7 million university and college graduates hunting for jobs this year, Huang calculated.
The government's goal of annual GDP growth for 2009 of 8 percent would generate only 8 million new jobs for the whole country, he added. In 1989, discontented students formed the core of the pro-democracy protests. Continued...
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