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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Search Search: Wall Street ponders if rally can run further AFP - Saturday, June 6 NEW YORK (AFP) - - Wall Street's three-month surge amid a deep recession has pundits wondering if the rally has gone too far, or is ready for a second wind. ADVERTISEMENT Gains over the past week have put the main indexes on the way to see positive results for 2009, defying skeptics who had expected deeper woes for the economy and stock market this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 3.1 percent in the week to Friday to 8,763.13, the best level in five months for the blue-chip index, which is now off just 0.15 percent for 2009. The Nasdaq climbed 4.2 percent to 1,849.42, leaving the tech-dominated index up 17 percent for the year and near its highest level since October. The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 2.3 percent on the week to 940.09, up four percent for 2009, after hitting a seven-month high during the week. The sizzling three-month rally has pushed up the Dow index by some 34 percent since lows hit March 9, while the S&P index is up 39 percent and the Nasdaq 45 percent. These are historically huge moves, but the market remains well below highs hit in late 2007. Analysts say the market appears to be anticipating an economic rebound from the recession that began in December 2007, even if the signs are only tentative. "What people tend to forget is that the market trend is more reflective of expectations for the next six to 12 months than of what the news is today," said Bob Dickey at RBC Wealth Management. "The market tends to predict the economy in advance and not the other way around, but commentators seem to continually insist that the market can't improve until the economy gets markedly better." Dickey said the current economic numbers "make it hard to tell if the market is in a new bull market or just bouncing within a bear market," adding: "Sooner or later, the economic conditions will justify the market level, but by then things may be ready to change again." Still, some say the rally needs to pause to digest gains and take some speculative fervor out of the market. "Because I believe growth will not return to yesterday's trend level for the foreseeable future, I think equities are approaching the upper end of their trading range," said Kent Engelke, economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management. "The three-month advance has been exhilarating, the expected response following the survival of a near-death experience. However I also think the market has limited downside for a myriad of reasons." The market managed to keep its composure over the past week after General Motors' massive bankruptcy filing and news from the labor market that showed ongoing weakness even if the pace of declines slowed. The jobless rate surged to 9.4 percent in May, while the number of job losses slowed to a better-than-expected 345,000, the Labor Department reported. The report, seen as one of the best indicators of economic momentum, offered conflicting signals about a weak labor market, but suggested that the pace of massive job cuts is easing, a positive sign for a recession-battered economy. "While this was a loss of jobs, it was the narrowest loss in over nine months which is a huge sign in my book," said Kevin Giddis, analyst at Morgan Keegan. "This has been a long time coming, but I am starting to believe that we have turned a real corner here and good things are about to happen." One potential stumbling block is the bond market, which has seen yields surge, dampening hopes for low interest rates that will nurture a recovery. Some say the rise reflects a stronger economy but other say bond buyers including some central banks are reluctant to purchase the US Treasury debt flooding the market. Irwin Stelzer, economist at the Hudson Institute, said a loss of investor confidence in US bonds could be troublesome, especially at a time when the Federal Reserve is pumping more funds into the financial system. "Investors have good reason to fear inflation and a decline in the value of the dollars with which the government will repay their loans. So they are driving up long-term interest rates. And dumping dollars," Stelzer said. "If those trends continue, the green shoots will wither as higher rates abort the housing recovery, and make it more expensive for businesses to make job-creating investments." The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond soared to 3.862 percent from 3.465 percent a week earlier and that on the 30-year bond jumped to 4.656 percent from 4.338 percent. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Sign in to recommend this article » 0 users recommend Enlarge Photo A cleaning worker stands with a broom as financial workers leave the floor of the New York Stock Exchange near the end of the trading day. Wall Street's three-month surge amid a deep recession has pundits wondering if the rally has gone too far, or is ready for a second wind. Most Popular – Top Stories Viewed Carradine may have died from sex act: Thai police US actor Carradine dead, suicide suspected: Thai police Black boxes may never be found: crash investigators World 'getting closer' to swine flu pandemic: WHO Pandemic warnings as swine flu spreads to Africa View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte Ltd. (Co. Reg. No. 199700735D). All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Service - Community - Intellectual Property Rights Policy - Help

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