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China's grip on Tibet tight, but options limited
Mon Mar 2, 2009 2:18am EST
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By Emma Graham-Harrison
LHASA, China (Reuters) - Tibet is in lockdown, closed to most foreigners. Armed paramilitaries patrol the main city of Lhasa, while police line roads to other towns. Even the movement of locals is restricted.
Beijing is determined that two sensitive anniversaries this month will not trigger a repeat of deadly riots and rippling unrest that destabilized China's west a year ago.
But the campaign to cauterize short-term dissent is fuelling a new level of Tibetan resentment and distrust that experts warn could be a smouldering threat to China's long-term stability.
"The Communists know they are faced with major problems in Tibet, but unfortunately they are not looking at the root cause of the problem," said Tsering Shakya, a Tibet expert and research chair at the University of British Columbia.
"People are really very much galvanized by the idea that the Chinese government will not listen to them. There is clearly a consensus in the (Tibetan) community that they have to take matters into their own hands."
Many Tibetans have resented Chinese rule since the 1959 flight into exile of revered spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, the 50th anniversary of which falls on March 10.
They say China has undermined their language and culture, and are bitter about Han Chinese flooding into the region, grabbing economic opportunities and often looking down on Tibetans.
An uneasy status quo has persisted for years in the "land of snows," with Beijing controlling Tibet while exiled Tibetans won popular support worldwide for their "peaceful resistance."
But recently China has thrown its rising diplomatic clout into efforts to curtail support for the exiles, while the Dalai Lama's health has raised questions about what Tibetans might do when he is no longer around to champion non-violence.
GUERRILLA ATTACKS?
Hardliners in the Chinese government have little interest in a settlement with the Dalai Lama after riots erupted in Lhasa last March, killing 19 people and threatening at one point to darken Beijing's moment of Olympic glory in August.
For some conservatives, violence may even be a desirable outcome as it would provide them with an excuse to further crack down and label Tibetans "terrorists," while undermining the moral authority of the exile community, analysts said.
Even moderate leaders cannot afford to be seen as weak by moving to the center of the political spectrum.
"They have built up power by presenting themselves as tough masters of these frontier people," said Robbie Barnett, director of the Modern Tibetan Studies Program at Columbia University.
"They are becoming entrenched in, and cornered by, their own rhetoric, so it is increasingly hard for them to make concessions or hold any talks (with the Dalai Lama)." Continued...
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