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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: NZ economy to resume growth in 2009/10-forecaster Reuters - Tuesday, March 3 WELLINGTON, March 3 - New Zealand's economy will start to emerge from recession later this year but a full recovery could take four years, a private forecaster said on Tuesday. ADVERTISEMENT In its latest quarterly forecasts, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research predicted the economy would contract 1.5 percent in the year to March 2009, the lowest since the end of 1991, because of falls in consumption, investment and net exports. "We expect the 2008 recession to have spilled into the first quarter of 2009. In annual terms, we forecast economic growth to reach its lowest point in the year ending March 2009," said NZIER senior economist Johannah Branson. New Zealand is in its first recession in a decade, having contracted in each of the first three quarters of 2008, and analysts expect the December quarter to be negative also. The think tank said annual growth would slowly move into positive territory of 1.1 percent by March 2010 before gradually improving to around 3 percent by 2013. Branson said the combination of lower interest rates and petrol prices, further tax cuts in April 2009 and growing immigration would stimulate a modest rise in private consumption. "The upturn will be gradual as consumers remain cautious in the face of rising unemployment," she said. The NZIER now expected unemployment rate to exceed 6 percent by this time next year and remain around this level until mid-2012 because of the weak economic outlook. The Treasury has forecast the unemployment rate will rise to 7.2 percent by March 2010 from 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the highest in five years. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sees it at 6 percent next year. The RBNZ has cut interest rates to a record low 3.5 percent to stimulate New Zealand's struggling economy. It is expected to cut by at least 50 basis points at its March 12 review and many analysts predict rates to fall as low as 2.5 percent by the end of the second quarter, according to the latest Reuters poll. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Recommend this article Average (0 votes) Sign in to recommend this article » Most Recommended Stories » Related Articles: China's Economy Wall Street drops on AIG fallout, economy fearsReuters - 58 minutes ago US STOCKS-Wall Street drops on AIG fallout, economy fearsReuters - 59 minutes ago Japan's car sales plungeAFP - 2 hours 29 minutes ago NZ economy to resume growth in 2009/10-forecasterReuters - Tuesday, March 3 Related Articles: Business US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Dow sinks below 7,000 on AIG loss, BuffettReuters - 1 hour 21 minutes ago Oil drops below $42 on economic pessimismReuters - 1 hour 24 minutes ago Wall Street set to slide on AIG woe, global routReuters - Tuesday, March 3 US STOCKS-Wall Street drops on AIG fallout, economy fearsReuters - 59 minutes ago Freddie Mac CEO Moffett quits after six-month stintReuters - 1 hour 32 minutes ago Related Full Coverage China Economy china economy All Full Coverage Most Popular – Business Viewed Supermodel Bundchen ties knot with football star Brady Prada and Cavalli give Milan the boot US insurer AIG reports $61.7 bln loss in Q4 Stress, suicide: tough wounds for the US Army Stem cell breakthrough now goes one step further View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte Ltd. (Co. Reg. No. 199700735D). All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Service - Community - Intellectual Property Rights Policy - Help

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