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Berlusconi faces crunch week amid economic worries
AFP - Sunday, November 14
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Berlusconi faces crunch week amid economic worries
ROME (AFP) - – The expected resignation of four ministers from Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's government on Monday will likely signal only the formal start of a lengthy crisis in a tough economic situation.
The resignations are part of a rebellion by speaker of parliament Gianfranco Fini, a former close political ally of Berlusconi who has become one of his most bitter rivals, calling on the prime minister to step down.
But experts say the move by Fini's allies is highly unlikely to bring down the government.
They say the struggle will play out in parliament, where Berlusconi is thought to hold a majority in the upper house and a minority in the lower house.
Lawmakers will move cautiously not only for fear of losing their seats but also because they need to approve a budget for 2011 before the end of the year, at what is a tricky time for Italy on international financial markets.
Berlusconi said on Saturday that the budget had to be approved "to ensure a positive stabilisation of our economic and financial situation" before there could be any moves in parliament on the tensions inside his ruling coalition.
His spokesman Paolo Bonaiuti has said Berlusconi wanted to "defend Italy's stability from the risks connected to renewed turbulence" on the markets.
Centre-left opposition leader Pier Luigi Bersani has also said the budget should be approved -- but he has warned the government not to engage in "time-wasting."
The budget debate is only set to start on Thursday and could well drag on.
Policymakers are afraid that the country's record-high public debt -- one of the highest in the world -- and its weak economic performance could make it more difficult for Italy to raise money on the markets, experts said.
Despite its economic difficulties, Italy has avoided the market troubles faced by other high-debt eurozone members such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
"There is a need for a political clarification and the stakes are high," said Stefano Folli, a columnist for business daily Il Sole 24 Ore.
Parliamentary leaders are to meet on Tuesday to discuss planned votes by the ruling coalition in the upper house and by the opposition in the lower house.
"Italy finds itself -- and will continue to find itself in the coming weeks -- at the unenviable crossroads between a giant global financial-economic storm and internal political gales," Mario Deaglio from La Stampa said said.
"Not only is it necessary to approve the budget... but it is crucial that, whatever the political configuration that emerges from the current storm, respect of European accords on public debt and deficit is guaranteed," he said.
Despite the political wrangling expected in the coming days, the consensus among experts is that Berlusconi's government -- in place since 2008 elections -- will eventually fall long before its mandate runs out in 2013.
The crucial question is what will happen after that.
Among the scenarios outlined in recent days are: a new Berlusconi government with a different coalition; an interim technocratic government without Berlusconi; and a centre-left government supported by Fini.
And there is always the prospect of early parliamentary elections.
Berlusconi's popularity has plunged in recent months and he has been under pressure from a series of scandals -- but he is still a formidable politician.
A poll published in Corriere della Sera on Saturday gave his People of Freedom party the highest proportion of voting intentions -- 26.5 percent.
It was followed by the centre-left Democratic Party at 24.2 percent; the populist Northern League party, the junior coalition partner in government; with 11.8 percent; and Fini's Future and Freedom movement at 8.1 percent.
Il Giornale, a newspaper owned by Berlusconi's brother, said the government might limp on for a few weeks more and then elections could be held in spring.
"A government with a patched-up majority would not last long," it said.
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