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Falling retail sales underscore recession fears
AFP - Saturday, November 1
WASHINGTON (AFP) - - Sharp falls in consumer spending in the United States and Germany deepened fears Friday of a global recession as Japan joined a growing list of major central banks cutting key interest rates.
As stock markets ended one of their most traumatic months in history with a mixed set of results, evidence abounded of the loss of confidence among businesses and consumers.
A report from the US Commerce Department showed American consumers cut spending by 0.3 percent in September, the steepest decline since June 2004.
The drop in spending -- which accounts for two-thirds of US economic activity -- came even as incomes rose 0.2 percent.
"Although this report is old news ... it underscores that we are in a consumer recession," said John Ryding at RDQ Economics.
A similar trend was apparent in Germany with official figures showing that retail sales plunged by 2.3 percent in September.
In Ukraine, the parliament approved legislation clearing the way for a 16.5 billion dollar (12.8 billion euro) crisis loan from the International Monetary Fund. The measures include the creation of a stabilization fund to help ailing banks and government spending cutbacks.
The Bank of Japan cut its key lending rate by 20 basis points to 0.30 percent and forecast that "increased sluggishness in Japan's economic activity will likely remain over the next several quarters."
The Japanese economy shrank in the second quarter of this year and a slew of gloomy data since then has reinforced fears of a prolonged downturn.
The central bank slashed its economic outlook, predicting tepid growth of 0.1 percent in the current financial year to March and 0.6 percent next year.
The Japanese rate cut was slightly smaller than markets had expected and failed to halt a slide in Japanese shares, with Tokyo's Nikkei stock index closing down 5.01 percent as investors took profits after three days of gains.
Hong Kong shares closed down 2.5 percent as investors locked in recent sharp gains sparked by hopes that the credit crunch was easing.
European stock markets however posted solid gains with the FTSE in London adding 2.0 percent, while in Paris the CAC 40 rose 2.33 percent and the Frankfurt DAX gained 2.44 percent.
In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed opening losses and was trading 211.70 points (2.31 percent) higher about 45 minutes before the market close.
But equities gains did little to ease the pain of one of the worst ever months for global stock exchanges, many of which suffered record one-day losses at some point in October.
"October is historically is a good month for the markets. After a month like this, who needs a bad month?" said Jeffrey Dawkins, chief investment officer at US-based asset managers The FQ Group.
Central banks from the United States to Asia lowered borrowing costs this week as part of efforts to avert a financial system meltdown.
Speculation grew that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England would follow suit next week with fresh rate cuts.
The Bank of Spain meanwhile said the Spanish economy, which has been hard hit by a property slump and the global financial crisis, shrank 0.2 percent in the third quarter, the first contraction since 1993.
Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos cut his country's growth forecast for next year from 1.25 percent closer to zero.
Japan's second-largest bank Mizuho Financial Group said it had cut its net profit forecast by more than half for the current year due to turmoil in the global financial markets.
Japan's Nissan Motor Co. said it was axing 3,500 jobs worldwide and cut its full-year forecasts by two-thirds as the global economic crisis shakes the auto industry.
Japan's third largest automaker, which is controlled by France's Renault, said that profits for the first half slumped by 40.5 percent on a sharp slowdown in the key US market and the soaring value of the yen.
"The global financial and economic crisis has had a profound effect on every area of our industry, with the grip on credit and declining consumer confidence being the most damaging factors," said Nissan-Renault boss Carlos Ghosn.
US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke urged the creation of a new system of US home-loan financing as the global financial system reels from problems stemming from the US mortgage sector more than a year ago.
Bernanke referred to the huge mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) which the government took over in September to avert a financial system meltdown from the housing crisis.
"The existing GSE model involves an inherent conflict between the objectives of the companies' private shareholders and the objectives of public policy," he said in a speech videoconferenced to a California symposium.
Bernanke outlined a range of approaches to reform of the GSE model, from privatization to nationalization and including covered bonds, the primary source of mortgage funding for European banks.
"Achieving the appropriate balance among these design challenges will be difficult, but it nevertheless must be high on the policy agenda for financial reform," he said.
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