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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Singapore Asia Pacific World FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in New Zealand Reuters - Friday, April 2 Send IM Story Print By Gyles Beckford WELLINGTON, April 1 - New Zealand's economic fortunes continue to improve as it emerges from its longest recession in more than 30 years, but the recovery is proving to be patchy as consumers remain wary in the face of low wage growth, rising unemployment, and looming tax changes. Following is a summary of key New Zealand political risks: PUBLIC DEBT AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS New Zealand's public finances remain pressured as revenue continues to feel the pinch from the global crisis and recession, forcing hefty government borrowing to finance the shortfall. The government needs to maintain a tight hold on its fiscal position with ratings agencies hovering in the background. New Zealand's economic fortunes have improved and there is no imminent risk of a downgrade, but the country's debt level and the constraints it places on policy remain a key theme. Fitch Ratings last month told Reuters New Zealand would have to show sustainable improvement in its fiscal position and debt levels to secure an upgrade in its credit rating outlook. [ID:nWEL003991] What to watch: -- National debt <NZTFRY=ECI> and budget deficit <NZTFR=ECI> data. If New Zealand fails to meet its target deficits in coming years, it could again face the risk of a downgrade by sovereign ratings agencies. This would push down not just debt prices <0#NZBONDS=RNZL> <NZDIRS> but also the Kiwi dollar <NZD=D2> and shares in New Zealand firms <.NZ50>. -- The timing of withdrawal of economic stimulus will be important in reducing budget deficits and borrowing, and should help ease pressure on interest rates. But as with most economies, if the exit is wrongly timed, growth could take another hit. TAX REFORM Significant changes are coming for the tax system after a report commissioned by the government said New Zealand's tax system needs a major shake-up. Among its suggestions are moves to close down the loopholes and anomalies that have given property investment a favoured position; raising the level of the indirect, value-added Goods and Services Tax but compensating low-income earners; cutting the top personal tax rate and corporate taxes; and considering a land tax. [ID:nSGE6010J0] Many of the recommended measures are politically difficult, and a land tax and capital gains tax on family homes have already been ruled out. The package to be unveiled in the May 20 budget will require delicate negotiations between the ruling National Party and its partners. Any hint of favouring big business over individuals, or increased tax burdens on families, could lead to tension and a slide in National's high popularity ratings. An election is not due until late 2011 but National has shown itself to be sensitive to public opinion. What to watch: -- The government has said the budget will contain tax reforms, probably with a cut in personal tax rates offset by a rise in the value-added Goods and Services Tax . It has also said it will change the tax treatment of residential property investment. A rise in GST to 15 percent from 10 percent, as widely tipped, would result in a one-off boost to consumer prices of 2.2 percent over the following 12 months. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS The centre-right National Party leads a minority government with the support of three smaller partners. The three have pledged to support National on key matters of supply and confidence, ensuring its political survival, but much of the rest of National's political programme comes down to negotiation on specific policies. This leads at times to compromise and delays. What to watch: -- The government is expected to last its three-year term but at times may struggle to push through pieces of policy, or be forced to make concessions which are unpopular with its support base in order to get laws passed. -- It faces a series of legislative tests with some of its minor support parties -- welfare system changes, control of the foreshore and seabed, and mining in conservation lands will test links with the Maori Party; climate change is a difficulty with the ACT Party. FOREIGN INVESTMENT RULES Hong Kong-based Natural Dairy Holdings Ltd <0462.HK> has announced plans to enter the New Zealand dairy sector by buying a group of farms currently up for sale. It says it wants to spend as much as NZ$1.5 billion to buy more farms and set up its own processing plants. The dairy sector is economically vital to New Zealand, providing a quarter of exports and more than 7 percent of gross domestic product, and the prospect of anything other than token foreign ownership of dairy farms and processing plants will excite strong passions and debate and ultimately political pressure about the "national interest". The government may be forced to make sensitive decisions that will test its free-market credentials and bilateral trade agreements. What to watch: -- The Overseas Investment Office has authority to approve small-scale applications but may seek government approval on any application seen as sensitive. The government has ordered a review of overseas investment rules to look at making them more streamlined and practical and to encourage foreign investment. 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