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Fitch downgrades Greek sovereign, bank debt
AFP - Wednesday, December 9
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Shoppers flock through Ermou Sreet, Athens' main shopping thoroughfare, in 2005. The Fitch rating agency on Tuesday downgraded Greece's long-term debt ratings as well as those on four of the country's largest banks, describing prospects for Greek public finances as negative.
PARIS (AFP) - – The Fitch rating agency on Tuesday downgraded Greece's long-term debt ratings as well as those on four of the country's largest banks, describing prospects for Greek public finances as negative.
Tuesday's action was a fresh blow to Greece, saddled with high public deficits and debt, as it came a day after another agency, Standard and Poor's, placed Greek debt under "negative" watch and warned of a downgrading if the government did not rein in its overspending.
The moves by the agencies rattled European markets, with the Athens exchange closing more than 6.0 percent in negative territory. Markets fell elsewhere in Europe, which analysts partially attributed to nervousness over the Greek situation.
In Brussels the European Union's executive commission urged the Greek government to take "more measures" to reduce its crippling deficit.
"A difficult situation in one euro-area member state is a matter of common concern for the euro area as a whole," warned outgoing European Union economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia in a statement.
"It is clear that Greece faces very substantial economic and fiscal challenges... but more measures are required," he added.
Tuesday's developments placed the eurozone under new strain because they put Greek debt in a danger zone regarding requirements by the European Central Bank for bonds it will accept as collateral when banks seek short-term funds.
Fitch downgraded Greek long-term debt ratings to BBB+ from A- notation, warning that the outlook was negative "given the weak credibility of fiscal institutions and the policy framework."
The agency later in the day said it had downgraded its ratings on five Greek banks in light of its action on Greece's sovereign debt.
Fitch lowered long-term debt ratings on four of Greece's largest commercial banks, National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, Efg Eurobank Ergasias and Piraeus Bank, to BBB-plus from A-minus.
The Agricultural Bank of Greece saw its rating lowered to BBB-minus from BBB.
Fitch said that while the four largest banks were likely to perform "adequately" in the fourth quarter this year and in 2010, "there is a high risk that Greece's weak fiscal position, which mainly caused the sovereign rating downgrade, could accentuate the deterioration of the economy."
Fitch noted that the four largest banks hold significant amounts of Greek government debt on their balance sheets that, in light of the sovereign downgrade, could "contribute to a deterioration in the banks' overall credit risk profiles."
Analysts at Goldman Sachs described the sovereign downgrading as "important," marking the first time the credit rating of bonds issued by a government in the eurozone had dropped to a point at which they would not be eligible for use as collateral at the ECB except for a "temporary change of rules in response to the (global) crisis."
Goldman Sachs said that the temporary easing in the quality of bonds acceptable to the ECB was due to last until the end of next year.
"In other words, unless the ECB fiddles with its rules before the end of next year, then from the beginning of 2011, Greek sovereign bonds will no longer be eligible for ECB collateral if Moody's or SandP downgrade them."
Banks use such bonds as collateral in order to qualify to bid to borrow the cheapest refinance available, from the ECB, under regular arrangements.
Banks handicapped by being unable to offer such collateral would therefore be excluded from a central activity of the eurozone, would have to replace those funds usually obtained from the ECB with more expensive money from the market, and would lose competitiveness.
The Fitch agency, implying that it expected special budget action by the Greek government, said it "understands that further measures will be announced in January 2010 to support the reduction in the fiscal deficit to 3.0 percent of GDP by 2013."
It said that "increased peer pressure" from within the EU and eurozone was likely "to strongly influence policy choices."
But it also remarked that Greece's sovereign ratings remained supported by the country's high-income economy "relative to rating peers and membership of the EU and EMU (economic and monetary union)."
Fitch said the weak credibility of government policy in Greece was "exacerbated by uncertainty over the prospects for a balanced and sustained economic recovery."
However, Fitch said that changes to public finances under the constraints of the EU Stability and Growth Pact would probably be enough to avert penalties under excessive public deficit rules.
But the national debt was likely to rise to 130 percent of output before stabilising.
"Given the poor historical track record of public finance management, Fitch is not convinced that the substantive pension reform and other measures necessary to contain public spending pressures and broaden the tax base will be sufficiently strong to materially reduce debt."
It said that although it believed the target of reducing public overspending by 3.6 percentage points of gross domestic product to 9.1 percent in 2010 was "achievable," the lack of "substantive structural policy measures reduces confidence that medium-term consolidation efforts will be aggressive enough to ensure public debt rations are stabilised and then reduced."
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