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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Singapore Asia Pacific World PREVIEW-New Zealand quake to stall rates until 2011 Reuters - Tuesday, September 14 Send IM Story Print * WHAT: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision * WHEN: Thursday, Sept 16, 9 a.m. * REUTERS FORECAST: Rates on hold at 3.00 percent By Mantik Kusjanto WELLINGTON, Sept 13 - New Zealand's central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday after an already uncertain economic outlook received a further blow from a major earthquake. Still, financial markets expect another rate rise in coming months, so will scour the statement for clues on its potential timing. On one hand, an earthquake has added to economic uncertainties after a string of weak data. On the other hand, the central bank is keen to normalise rate settings and control inflation expectations as the government raises a sales tax. All 19 analysts polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep its cash rate at 3.0 percent on Sept 16, after 25 basis point rises in both June and July. [NZ/POLL] Financial markets see only an 8 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike this week, down from 20 percent on Sept 3 before the quake, a Credit Suisse index shows <CSRBNZ=CSAU>. RATES STEADY, NO RISES THIS YEAR RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard has already calmed rate expectations. He said in July the pace and extent of further rate increases was likely to be more moderate than projected in June, as the softening global outlook added to subdued domestic data. Domestic consumption is sluggish and a housing market recovery has stalled. Business confidence has slipped for the past five months while unemployment has increased after a brief drop. Since then, a 7.1 magnitude quake in Canterbury on the South Island on Sept. 4 had added a further question mark over the economic outlook. The central bank is unlikely to repeat that the pace and extent of rate increases would moderate further, but will point to its caution over the immediate economic outlook by downgrading its fourth-quarter growth forecast from 0.9 percent. That is more likely to mean rates will be on hold until 2011, especially if there is no escalation in language over inflation, which is set to jump owing to an increase in the rate of a goods and sales tax. [ID:nSGE67G0KH] The Treasury estimated the quake will shave between 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent from growth in the September quarter, with 0.4 percent the best estimate. "The patchiness of the domestic and global economy, not to mention the need to provide further support in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquake, are expected to keep the cash rate at 3 percent over the remainder of 2010," said ANZ-National chief economist Cameron Bagrie. Probability: most likely Market impact: The New Zealand dollar <NZD=>, or kiwi, and interest rate futures prices <0#NBB:> would drift lower. The kiwi has risen strongly all month and rates futures have edged up in recent sessions owing to global risk appetite, so both are vulnerable to a correction. Still, any fall in rate futures would be modest. They have scaled back rate expectations as economic data and the quake raised uncertainties. They now see 64 basis points of tightening over the next 12 months, down from 79 basis points in late July. <CSRBNZ1Y=CSAU>. Market pricing implies a 14 basis point rise by the end of the year, down from 27 basis points a month ago. RATES STEADY, A RISE IN OCTOBER OR DECEMBER Having signalled a lower trajectory for rate rises in July, the central bank won't want to give the market the impression it has gone soft on inflation ahead of a tax increase. So it will be careful to manage expectations for how long it leave rates on hold by saying that a further removal of stimulus will be needed if the economy evolves as projected. That would be a signal to markets that a rate rise could still happen in October or December, the last two policy reviews of the year. The goods and services tax rises to 15 percent from 12 percent on Oct. 1 and is set to lift consumer inflation to around 5 percent by the middle of 2011. Excluding the tax changes, annual consumer inflation is expected to peak at 2.6 percent. Although the central bank has said it would not respond to a temporary rise in inflation, it is wary of businesses and workers trying to unreasonably raise wages and prices, so will point to the continued removal of the stimulus put in place during the global downturn. [ID:nSGE67I04V] "That's not strongly-worded enough to suggest a hike at the next rate review in October, but it would fit with a resumption of tightening in the December monetary policy statement," said Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan. The Reuters poll shows four analysts expect the next rise in October, 10 in December and nine next year. * Probability: less likely * Market Impact: Rates futures have been pricing out the chances of a rate rise during the rest of the year, so a statement focusing on keeping inflation expectations in check would prompt them to edge up. The kiwi's reaction is less certain. Suggestions of a rate rise in October or December might not be enough to give the currency a boost if the RBNZ is cautious over the economic outlook. 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