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Thailand maintains growth projections despite riots
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3:06am EDT
Thailand maintains growth projections despite riots
Ambika Ahuja
BANGKOK
Mon May 24, 2010 3:06am EDT
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BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand expects resilient economic growth for the year, despite the worst political mayhem in its modern history and political uncertainties ahead, as battle-scarred Bangkok re-opened for business on Monday.
World | Thailand
The government reported quarterly economic growth of 3.8 percent in the first quarter, double market expectations of 1.8 percent, but analysts said output over the rest of the year would be hostage to the likelihood of more violence.
"Investors may be temporarily relieved that a semblance of normalcy has returned, but the political risk remains high and investors will likely be cautious," said Warut Siwasariyanon, head of research at Finansia Syrus Securities in Bangkok.
"The big, underlying conflict is still there and the wound is deeper than ever, even as the roads have been wiped clean."
At least 54 people were killed in Bangkok and more than 400 injured in the latest bout of violence that began on May 14. Almost 40 buildings were set on fire last week as the army dispersed thousands of anti-government protesters who had taken over the commercial heart of the city for months.
But the crisis has not been resolved and "red shirt" protesters plan to resume their campaign for new elections next month.
The state planning agency said the 2010 growth forecast was being maintained at 3.5-4.5 percent.
But the forecast would have been 1.5 percent higher if not for the two-month protest in central Bangkok that paralyzed business, decimated the vital tourism industry and depressed consumer spending, the agency said.
RATES ON HOLD?
Thailand's $264 billion economy grew 12 percent in the first quarter of 2010 from a year earlier, its best rate in 15 years, beating the consensus of 8.9 percent due to a surge in exports and a low base last year.
"Outstanding first-quarter growth was much anticipated but I think what we have to keep an eye on is the second-quarter growth, which will seriously take a hit from political violence in Bangkok," said Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, an economist at Kasikorn Research Center in Bangkok.
Economists said the disruption to the economy could also persuade the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at a record low 1.25 percent at its next review on June 2.
But, with the protests over, most expect rates to start rising, perhaps from July or August.
Thai bond yields jumped in early trading after an enforced two-day break as the market began to price in a rate rise, traders said. In early deals, benchmark five-year bond yields rose eight basis points to 3.20 percent.
Thailand's five-year credit default swaps, the cost of insuring against a sovereign default, narrowed 10 basis points to 150/160, from a one-year high of 165/175 reached last week as violence escalated between troops and protesters.
The baht firmed slightly, but Thai stocks were off 2.3 percent at the midday break, with retail, tourism-related and hotel shares taking the brunt.
Central Pattana, which operates Central World, Southeast Asia's second largest department store that was burned down in the riots, dropped 8 percent although the company said it expected no significant impact since it was covered by insurance.
Erawan Group PCL, which operates two Bangkok hotels -- Grand Hyatt Erawan and Courtyard by Marriott -- was down about 1.8 percent. Erawan said revenue during April and May would drop 150 million baht ($4.6 million) from last year due to the impact of the protests.
The government said it had received complaints of damage totaling 4.8 billion baht ($148 million) from at least 2,900 individual businesses in central Bangkok.
"This is just an initial estimate based on complaints," said Sathit Wongnongtoey, a minister in the prime minister's office.
"But in the long-term, we may have to consider low-interest loans to small businesses which are affected."
On Monday, however, the city of 15 million appeared to be operating as usual, at least on the surface.
Both metropolitan train services, the Skytrain and the underground, were running after starting skeletal service over the weekend following disruptions during the protests.
Trains were crowded, but with enough space to stand comfortably, even in morning rush hour.
Government offices and some schools reopened, but a night curfew in the city and 23 provinces remained.
"You look around and it feels like nothing has happened," said Dao Pipirom, a 35-year-old market researcher whose apartment is in the business district. "Life goes on as normal now."
"But I still get very agitated when I hear loud noise. I keep thinking it's another grenade blast or gunshot." (Writing by Raju Gopalakrishnan; Editing by Bill Tarrant)
World
Thailand
Comments
See All Comments (2) | Post Comment
May 23, 2010 11:54pm EDT
every rainy and winter season, those people asking help from bangkok for food, cloth, money, and bangkok give them every year.
this year they came to bangkok, they burn bangkok, then they leave, and city of bangkok have to clean up their mess, rebuild our town. and! we keep telling each other to forgive them.
ask! since bangkok became a capital of thailand more than 200 years ago. if those out side of bangkok ever offer help when bangkok really need it?
not even one we got help!
ask! do the red-shirt will tell each other to forgive and try to talk for better understanding as bangkok resident is now telling each other?
ha! we will see, but by far, didn’t the news just said they will resume protest outside of bangkok?
blackout
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May 24, 2010 2:38am EDT
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