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Stock markets wary on eve of US presidential vote
AFP - 2 hours 30 minutes ago
NEW YORK (AFP) - - World stock markets gained in cautious trade Monday on the eve of the US presidential vote, seen as a potential key turning point for the handling of the global financial crisis.
US stocks closed virtually flat in quiet trading ahead of Tuesday's voting for president and Congress as fresh data underscored economic worries.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.18 points (0.06 percent) to 9,319.83, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 5.38 points (0.31 percent) to 1,726.33.
The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 2.45 points (0.25 percent) to finish at 966.30.
In a vital week for investors seeking some clarity in the ongoing markets meltdown, US voters will elect either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain for president on Tuesday, setting the stage for the next four years at the White House.
"Without a doubt, Wall Street and most likely the rest of America hopes the election produces a clear winner without resulting in the post-election problems seen back in 2000," said Fred Dickson, analyst at DA Davidson & Co.
But economic reports on Monday highlighted the deepening distress in the US economy with 1982 recessionary readings. The government last week reported the world's biggest economy contracted in the third quarter, signaling a painful recession ahead as the global financial crisis unfolds.
Data on the US manufacturing sector showed activity fell for the third month in a row in October in a sharply accelerated pace of decline.
The Institute for Supply Management said its purchasing managers' index fell to 38.9 in October from 43.5 in September, the lowest level for the PMI since September 1982.
A third-quarter business survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) found businesses far more negative than they were in July, "suggesting that the ongoing financial crisis is pulling down the overall economy."
Looking ahead to 2009, 90 percent of NABE respondents said they became more pessimistic during the period, when falling profit margins outnumbered rising margins three to one, the worst reading since 1982.
The US market's cautious tenor came on the first day of trade in November after global stock markets suffered their worst month in history in October, losing a whopping 5.79 trillion dollars in value, according to Standard & Poor's ratings agency.
S&P said Monday the loss for the 52 main global equity markets measured in dollar terms topped the record loss of 4.0 trillion dollars set a month earlier.
The meltdown in global markets, amid a squeeze in credit and worries about a worldwide recession, has vaporized 16.2 trillion dollars in market value so far this year, it said.
European markets were higher in early trade, picking up from strong gains in Asia, but then lost momentum on a lackluster Wall Street opening.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 index closed up 1.51 percent at 4,443.28, the Paris CAC 40 gained 1.17 percent to 3,527.97 points and Frankfurt's DAX rose 0.62 percent to 5,018.85.
Dealers said the Dow's gains of 1.57 percent Friday provided support for Asia. Hong Kong closed up 2.7 percent, Sydney added 5.06 percent and Singapore jumped 5.0 percent. Tokyo was shut for a public holiday.
"Markets remain jittery and a likely global recession should fuel further uncertainty going forward," said Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Valentin Marinov.
The market also counted on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England lowering interest rates by a half point on Thursday, in the wake of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks in efforts to unblock frozen credit markets.
Marinov said the widely expected interest rate cuts should reassure investors, but "we doubt that the bounce in sentiment will grow into a lasting recovery in risk appetite, however."
European markets were additionally hit by data showing that the worst financial crisis in seven decades was forecast to drive the EU economy into a recession and that growth will grind to a near-halt in 2009.
"The economic horizon has now significantly darkened as the European Union economy is hit by the financial crisis that deepened during the autumn and is taking a toll on business and consumer confidence," said EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia.
Markets were eagerly awaiting Tuesday's US presidential elections, with public opinion polls giving Obama a sharp edge over Republican rival McCain.
"In the context of the current financial climate, it is possible that an Obama victory could well provide the necessary spark for optimism to return to the markets," said Joshua Raymond, market strategist at City Index in London.
"The US election has historically sparked a surge in the markets and given the circumstances of an impending Obama victory, you wouldn't bet against history," he added.
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