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Analysts fear Nano cancellations
AFP - Wednesday, May 6
MUMBAI (AFP) - - Auto analysts suggested on Tuesday that orders for the world's cheapest car could be cancelled because of supply problems.
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Tata Motors, India's top vehicle maker, said late Monday it had received over 203,000 fully paid orders for the tiny, jellybean-shaped Tata Nano just weeks after it appeared in Indian showrooms.
"Bookings beat expectations but the company may not be able to retain orders going ahead," said Mahantesh Sabarad, an analyst at Centrum Broking in Mumbai.
All 203,000 customers who placed orders will go into a lottery with computerised random selection used to choose 100,000 people to be the first to get keys to a Nano.
The lottery will be completed by the end of next month.
Tata Motors is likely to produce just 50,000 cars at present from existing plants after being forced out of its planned factory in eastern India over a land dispute.
A new plant in western Gujarat state is being built and expected to be operational by the end of the year.
Unsuccessful customers in the ballot can either cancel their order or leave the cash advance they paid with the company to earn 8.5 percent interest for the first year.
But analysts said the rate was not competitive and expected massive cancellations.
Sabarad estimated that some 130,000 of the 203,000 would ask for their money back, even if they had been successful in the lottery because of delays in delivery of the car.
"This is a common trend... there is not much incentive to hold on to the order," Sabarad told AFP.
Most of India's state-run banks offer higher rates of return on deposits.
"Most applicants who fail to get a Nano in the first round will withdraw bookings," said Deepak Jain, analyst at Edelweiss Securities, who expects half of those people unsuccessful in the lottery to cancel -- some 50,000.
The four-door Nano, whose basic model sells for just 100,000 rupees (2,000 dollars), has been hailed as "The People's Car" and touted as a revolution in transport for millions of Indians who currently travel on two wheels.
It is expected to hit the streets from July.
Overall, analysts expect demand for cars to be sluggish in the 12 months to March next year, hit by the global slowdown and fears of job losses.
Domestic demand for Indian cars could rise by just four percent, said Vaishali Jajoo, an analyst at Angel Broking in Mumbai.
The launch of the Nano has come as Tata Motors is going through a rough patch as it tries to absorb British luxury marques Jaguar and Land Rover, which it bought in 2008 for 2.4 billion dollars and whose sales have plunged.
Analysts say the Nano will not make a big contribution -- at least in the early years -- to the company's bottom line, with profit margins seen as slim.
Tata Motors recently posted a quarterly net loss for the three months to December of 2.63 billion rupees (52 million dollars). The earnings report marked the first time the company had fallen into the red in seven years and did not include the results of Jaguar and Land Rover.
Standard and Poor's downgraded Tata Motors' credit rating just days after the Nano went on display in showrooms, citing such concerns as "a material deterioration" in cash flow and a tough operating environment.
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