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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Your Job In 2020 Forbes By Ford Martin - 2 hours 26 minutes ago Send IM Story Print The greatest economic challenge the United States faces in the coming decade will be reversing its dismal unemployment situation. The past decade has been an unmitigated disaster for job creation. To keep pace with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from rising, the economy needs to consistently create between 1 million and 2 million new jobs per year. Yet private-sector employment has actually fallen over the last 10 years; the U.S. now employs at least a million fewer people than it did in 1999. What are the prospects for turning things around by 2020? Some analysts are sanguine. A recent report sponsored by the MetLife Foundation predicts that due to a gradually aging workforce, the U.S. may in fact actually face an overall worker shortage as early as 2018. What this type of demographic analysis misses is the extraordinary acceleration we are likely to see in information technology. Already job automation technology has had a dramatic impact on employment over the past decade. In the manufacturing sector factories that continue to operate in the U.S. are able to survive only by automating the production process as much as possible. In the service sector automation often comes in the guise of self-service: ATMs, automated checkout isles and online banking are just a few areas in which technology allows customers to do the jobs that once required workers. Meanwhile, advances in information and communications technology have accelerated the globalization of corporate workforces--in particular the trend toward offshore outsourcing, or "offshoring," where jobs are transferred to low-wage countries. While the technological progress over the past decade has been dramatic, it's nothing compared to what we can expect in the next 10 years. Historically, advances in computing power have followed Moore's Law, which stipulates that computing capability roughly doubles every two years. There will always be the natural inclination to assume we will witness the same degree of progress in the next 10 years that we saw in the last 10--but that view is deceivingly simple. It fails to account for the exponential nature of technological advances. If Moore's Law holds throughout the next decade, we can expect that the power of computing will increase by a factor of approximately 32. That's 32 times the technical capability we have now--and there is every reason to expect that dramatic increase in computing power will be leveraged to drive down costs by automating jobs. Automation technology will continue to hit hardest in the areas where we have come to expect it: the manufacturing sector and low-wage, unskilled jobs of all types. Yet the reality is that by 2020 we will also see increasing penetration of automation into occupations that require significant training and college degrees. The six-figure knowledge workers who now inhabit oceans of corporate cubicles will be heavily threatened by software automation and specialized artificial intelligence applications that can perform many of the routine tasks and analyses that occupy their days. Where technology is not yet sufficient for full automation, businesses are likely to turn to offshoring as an interim solution. Advancing software tools--in some cases enhanced by technologies such as machine learning--will continually upgrade the capabilities of low-wage offshore workers. As both job automation and offshoring become cheaper and more accessible, both practices are likely to be employed increasingly by the small businesses that have historically been responsible for the bulk of U.S. job creation. Many dismiss this rather pessimistic view by pointing to the fact that, while technology eliminates jobs, it also creates new industries and employment sectors. This argument glosses over the fact that new technology-based industries tend to be capital intensive: they do not employ large numbers of people. Compare McDonalds with Google: In 2008 McDonalds employed 400,000 people with revenue of $59,000 per worker. Google had just 20,000 employees--each of which brought in, on average, over a million dollars in revenue. The question we have to ask is: What happens when McDonald's begins to look more like Google? Advancing technology may indeed create more Googles, but the same progress is almost certain to eventually have a highly disruptive impact on employment in the more traditional, labor-intensive industries that employ the bulk of the workforce--potentially eliminating entire job categories by 2020. The economy of 2020 may well be characterized by substantial, broad-based and ever increasing structural unemployment, as well as by stagnant or plunging consumer spending and confidence. Mainstream economists, content to rely on quantitative models built in the last century, are largely oblivious to and ill-equipped for the reality of the next decade. If 2020 finds us on the brink of an age in which our workers are becoming increasingly superfluous, any solutions to the problem will likely be radical and, by 2010 standards, politically unthinkable. By 2020 solutions will have to be found. Ultimately the viability of capitalism and of our democratic institutions will demand it. Martin Ford is the author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future and blogs regularly at econfuture.wordpress.com. Click Here To Read More About The Future Recommend Send IM Story Print Related Articles Ubisoft getting videogame players off the couch AFP - 53 minutes ago Your Job In 2020 Forbes - 2 hours 26 minutes ago Making Whuffie Forbes - 2 hours 26 minutes ago The World's Greenest Billionaires Forbes - 2 hours 26 minutes ago How To Track A Cheating Spouse Forbes - 2 hours 26 minutes ago News Search Top Stories Sons more likely to swindle their mums: study Mexico drug war attacks claim 43 lives in one day BP denies bankruptcy rumors, seeks advice BP shares plunge over 9 percent on oil spill fears Top European officials deny Spanish bailout bid More Top Stories » ADVERTISEMENT Most Popular Most Viewed Most Recommended World Cup marred by riots over pay, empty seats FIFA rules out banning vuvuzela horns BP denies bankruptcy rumors, seeks advice Italy's debt reaches record 1.8 trln euros BP shares plunge over 9 percent on oil spill fears More Most Viewed » The point about pain: New study sheds light on acupuncture Clashes as Israeli forces storm Gaza aid boat: Hamas TV Egypt unearths tomb of pharaonic army chief Physicists solve mystery of missing neutrinos More Most Recommended » Elsewhere on Yahoo! 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