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By Chris Buckley and Ben Blanchard
BEIJING |
Fri Oct 15, 2010 1:57am EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's leaders grapple with high politics and grassroots needs at a conclave from Friday to set growth priorities and possibly advance succession plans intended to secure an economic ascent free of political upheavals.
The meeting of the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee opens a delicate phase of economic refitting and elite turnover that will preoccupy Chinese policy-makers for the next couple of years, reaching a crescendo in early 2013.
Some 370 central and provincial officials cloistered in a heavily guarded hotel in west Beijing will settle on the key parts of the next five-year development plan that starts in 2011. President Hu Jintao said it would promote "inclusive growth" to improve the incomes and welfare of farmers and workers.
"China has entered a different stage now," said Nicholas Bequelin, a researcher on China for Human Rights Watch, an international watchdog group.
"Now we're getting into the difficult part when it's much more difficult for the Party to satisfactorily respond to popular demands," Bequelin said in a telephone interview.
The four-day meeting may also approve promotions that will signal officials' prospects in a emerging leadership line-up to succeed President Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao.
The results will be announced only after the meeting ends on Monday and state media issue a broad summary. The full details of the economic plan will appear only next year.
Much of the guessing in Beijing is about whether Vice President Xi Jinping will be promoted to the Vice Chairmanship of the Central Military Commission, cementing his status as favored successor to Hu, who gives up the presidency in early 2013.
Hu joined the Commission before he became top leader, and based on that precedent, some observers say Xi's hold on the top job could be less certain if he does not get the same this time.
But whatever their eventual pecking order, China's emerging leaders, including Xi and Wen's most likely successor, Vice Premier Li Keqiang, are likely to stick to the government's current formula of reworking the economy to domestic demand and eschewing bold political experiments or open splits in the elite.
"In a way, all these fifth generation leaders are groomed as a group, as a cohort," said Bo Zhiyue, a researcher at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute, referring to the next generation of leaders such as Xi.
IT'S THE ECONOMY, COMRADE
Chinese Premier Wen has repeatedly called for more urgent reform of the political system to give citizens more say.
But there are no signs that the Party meeting will head down that path. The government's vehement condemnation of the Nobel Peace Prize for dissident Liu Xiaobo has shown how far the Party is from embracing the democratic changes some critics want.
"This leadership is obsessively risk averse," said Bequelin.
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