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White House cautiously optimistic on stimulus jobs
By MATT APUZZO,Associated Press Writer AP - 1 hour 38 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - White House economists said Thursday that the Obama administration's recovery efforts have saved or created more than one million jobs, an estimate that underscored a cautiously optimistic forecast about the direction of the economy.
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President Barack Obama has promised that his $787 billion stimulus plan will create or save 3.5 million jobs by the end of next year. But the economy has fared worse than the White House predicted when it pitched the jobs plan and officials have tried to beat back criticism that the results were not worth the cost of the huge combination of tax cuts, state aid and government programs.
In its first report to Congress on the stimulus, the White House Council on Economic Advisers said the economy was improving and would have been far worse without the stimulus.
"We have absolutely seen a change in trajectory," Christina Romer, the top White House economic adviser, said.
Previous job estimates have been based on an economic model that was never intended to count jobs. In Thursday's report, the White House focused instead on a more common economic formula that tracks the relationship between jobs and the overall economy.
Because the economy declined less than expected in recent months, the White House said that translated to about one million jobs that would have been lost without government efforts. The report attributes much of this to the stimulus but conceded it is difficult to say for certain which of the many government economic policies contributed to the estimate.
"Other policy actions, such as the Financial Stabilization Plan, monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve's program of buying agency debt and long-term U.S. government bonds, surely contributed," the report said.
The effect of the stimulus will become clearer over time. Next month, businesses and states are required to report a head count of the number of workers involved in stimulus projects. That won't take into consideration the effect of some programs such as tax cuts, but it will provide the first raw job numbers associated with the stimulus.
Thursday's report drew criticism from Republicans, who noted that since Obama signed the stimulus in February, the nation has lost about 2.4 million jobs. It is impossible to say what that number would have been without the stimulus.
Republicans have struggled at times to find their voice when criticizing the stimulus. Even as they criticize its sizable price tag, some Republican lawmakers have called for even more spending on transportation and infrastructure projects. Some lawmakers who voted against the bill have turned around and touted it when it sent money into their district.
The White House conceded its report was "subject to considerable uncertainty." But even before its release, economic indicators have shown promising signs that the recession is easing. When it does, the Obama administration hopes that criticism of the stimulus will fade, just as the Bush administration's massive bank bailout drew wide criticism but is now credited by many economists with helping stabilize the economy.
While the job picture has been slow to improve, some businesses have credit the stimulus bill with preventing layoffs. And jobs are being created, from construction workers repairing highways to thousands of yearlong jobs cleaning up hazardous waste at a former bomb-making complex South Carolina.
The question is whether those jobs are worth the price tag and the debt the government has taken on to pay for it.
The White House report noted that, while jobs losses continue to mount, the rate of those losses has slowed from more than 700,000 per month early this year to 216,000 last month. But officials know the most important number remains the unemployment rate, which sits at 9.7 percent.
(This version CORRECTS job loss to 2.4 million, sted 2.5 million, to reflect updated figures.) )
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