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US economy shrinks 0.3 percent
AFP - Friday, October 31
WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The US economy contracted at a 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter, the government reported Thursday, showing the effect of the global credit crunch on consumers and businesses.
The drop in gross domestic product (GDP) was the first since the fourth quarter of 2007, the Commerce Department reported in the first of three estimates on overall economic output.
The decline, not as steep as the 0.5 percent drop expected by private economists, comes amid mounting expectations of a sharp falloff in the US economy amid the worst banking and financial crisis in decades.
The decrease in activity -- a sharp fall from the 2.8 percent growth rate of the second quarter -- reflected weaker consumer and business spending and housing activity, offset in part by rising exports and government spending.
Consumer spending, the main driver of economic activity, fell 3.1 percent in the quarter on a sharp 14 percent plunge in spending on so-called durable goods like cars and appliances expected to last three years or more.
Spending on nondurables such as food and clothing slid 6.4 percent, the biggest decline since 1950.
In housing, which has seen a horrific meltdown after a long boom, investment fell 19.1 percent, a major drag on the economy.
While the decline in activity was somewhat mild, the report comes amid expectations for one of the worst recessions in decades as the economy is strangled by a collapse in credit amid troubles from banks that bet on the US property bubble.
Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, said the GDP number would have been even weaker without accounting for companies building up inventories, which added 0.5 percentage points on the positive side.
"This is the first of a run of negative GDP numbers," he said.
"The economy is in recession. We tentatively expect GDP of minus one percent in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2009."
Activity had been supported in the second quarter by a big US government stimulus plan that sent out tens of billions of dollars in tax rebates to consumers, but the impact of that has now faded.
Exports, a main source of economic activity ealier this year, also helped keep the GDP figure from being weaker but growth slowed to 5.9 percent in the third quarter from 12.3 percent in the second.
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A cargo ship is loaded in the Port of New Orleans in 2007. The US economy contracted at a 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter, the government reported, showing the effect of the global credit crunch on consumers and businesses.
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