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North Korea's political elite meet over succession
Reuters - 53 minutes ago
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By Jeremy Laurence and Brett Cole
SEOUL - Isolated North Korea has summoned its political elite to a rare ruling party meeting on Tuesday in a move analysts expect will herald the start of the succession process of ailing leader Kim Jong-il's youngest son.
Regional powers will be keeping close tabs on the Workers' Party conference, the biggest meeting of its kind in the secretive state for 30 years, for any signs of change which could impact the destitute state's economic and foreign policies.
Intelligence officials say Kim Jong-un, the 20-something son of the state's "Dear Leader," was identified last year as next in line to the dynastic throne in a country with enough fissile material for at least six to eight nuclear weapons.
Analysts say Tuesday's conference will provide a platform for the young Kim's political debut, and present him for the first time to the isolated country's 23 million residents.
Experts say the most market-friendly outcome is an approximate continuation of the current system. The biggest concern is any signs of regime collapse that could result in internal unrest, massive refugee flows and military exchanges.
China and Japan are the world's number two and three economies and, with South Korea, account for close to 20 percent of global economic output. Instability on the Korean peninsula could have grave implications for the global economy.
"Should the conference itself open the door for an orderly leadership change and in one way or another economic reform, we see a great deal of underlying, long-term economic benefit for a united Korean economy," said Goohoon Kwon, Korea economist and co-head of research at Goldman Sachs in Seoul.
"Current North Korean risk can be seen to have its downsides, but the potential for united Korean economy in the future offers promising medium and long-term upsides."
At the last such party meeting 30 years ago, Kim, then aged 38, began his official role to succeed his father and state founder by taking on a Workers' Party title.
The 68-year-old leader, who is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008, is not expected to go into retirement just yet despite his declining health, experts say. They say his son is too young and inexperienced to fully take the reins.
But by signalling the young Kim's rise, experts say North Korea is readying for a collective father-and-son leadership, which will cement the family's grip on power.
In the event Kim Jong-il dies suddenly, his son by then identified as figurehead leader, would be surrounded by close family confidantes who have been appointed to senior positions in the Workers' Party and military in recent months.
South Korea, China, the United States and Japan will all be watching for clues as to how the transfer of power proceeds in the country with a military-first policy and enough fissile material for at least six to eight nuclear weapons.
FAMILY RULE
The conference, which was mysteriously delayed from earlier in the month, was called to elect the party's "supreme leadership body."
Analysts say the party wants to improve its position as the major power group in North Korean society.
In recent years, the party has played second fiddle to the National Defence Commission as Kim has embraced a military-first policy. But now he needs to win the backing of the political elite in pushing through his son's succession.
Reinforcing the belief that succession issue will be on the agenda, Kim referred to his visit last month to China as being an "important historical mission to hand over to the rising generation."
Little is known about Kim's youngest child, who has never been mentioned by name in state media. He is known to have attended international school in Switzerland, where he learned to speak English and German.
Experts say Kim's uncle, Jang Song-Thaek, will likely act as his regent until he can build his own power base.
The meeting takes place at a time of great hardship for the impoverished North as it tries to work around the sanctions and accomplish something to show for its pledge to become a "powerful and prosperous" nation by 2012.
The North is hopelessly low in cash, and Kim's two visits to China this year were in part seen to win economic support. Excerbating its problems, a botched currency reform last year triggered inflation and wiped out ordinary citizens' savings.
The meeting comes amid a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region after Pyongyang expressed readiness to return to nuclear disarmament talks, which have been in limbo since 2008 when the mercurial North walked out and said they were finished. China has hosted the on-again-off-again talks since they began in 2003.
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