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Fed set for momentous move to prime US economy
AFP - Tuesday, November 2
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Fed set for momentous move to prime US economy
WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The Federal Reserve's policy-setting panel will meet Tuesday, when it is expected to cast aside its long-held reluctance to micromanage the economy in a bid to avoid a lost decade of growth.
The Fed's open market committee (FOMC) will begin a two-day meeting in Washington, when it is widely expected to resume large-scale spending not seen since the depths of the economic crisis.
The US central bank is likely to announce that it will restart purchases of long-term US bonds -- essentially printing billions of dollars -- in the hope of staving off deflation that could spell a decade of economic stagnation.
While the Fed took similar measures during the crisis, it is virtually unprecedented when the economy is not teetering on the edge of collapse, raising protests from some Fed members who fear it is unnecessary and will fuel long-term inflation.
Critics of the policy argue that although the recovery is painfully slow markets should be allowed to do their work, and worry that if the policy fails the Fed's credibility will be wrecked.
But supporters argue that the Fed is failing in both of the prongs of its dual mandate, with unemployment and inflation both at unsustainable levels and must act.
Since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke first suggested the possibility in late September, and confirmed it in October, markets and most economists have penciled in another round of quantitative easing (QE) as a solid bet.
With the long drum roll heightening expectations, the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the second round of bond purchases, dubbed QE2, after a meeting Wednesday.
"The November FOMC meeting has arguably been the most highly expected this year," Nomura Global Economics analysts said in a client note.
The meeting opens Tuesday in the thick of hotly contested congressional and local elections nationwide.
President Barack Obama's Democrats are poised to lose seats in Congress to Republicans, who oppose the administration's massive stimulus spending that dragged the economy out of the worst recession since the Great Depression, but ran up sky-high deficits doing it.
A government report Friday showing only modest third-quarter economic growth bolstered expectations of further Fed stimulus to lower long-term interest rates and fight off deflationary pressure in the slack economy.
The world's largest economy grew at a 2.0-percent annual rate in July-September, in line with expectations, slightly more than a 1.7-percent expansion in the second quarter.
Economists consider that economic growth must reach about three percent for some time to significantly reduce high unemployment.
But more than a year after the recession officially ended, unemployment has been hovering near double-digits.
When the government reports payroll data on Friday, the jobless rate was expected to remain stuck at 9.6 percent for the third straight month in October.
"The US economic recovery continues on, but growth remains too weak to cause a serious improvement in the labor market," said Augustine Faucher at Moody's Analytics.
Amid that backdrop the Fed has left interest rates at historic lows and is unlikely to change that any time soon.
Uppermost in minds was how much the Fed will pump into the financial system, effectively printing money in an effort to lower long-term interest rates, and whether the injection will heal the ailing economy or make it worse.
The Fed already has poured in more than 1.5 trillion dollars to spark a recovery.
IHS Global Insight analysts Nigel Gault and Brian Bethune said estimates of the size of the expected program have ranged from 500 billion to over a trillion.
A number of analysts said the Fed probably would launch a set of incremental purchases and adjust the program based on the economy's performance.
The Nomura analysts predicted the FOMC statement would include a commitment to continue buying until the committees forecasts show significant progress toward full employment and inflation approaches more acceptable levels.
Moody's Faucher said that risks were weighted to the downside, and the probability of a double-dip recession was close to one in three.
"The most serious problem right now is a lack of confidence," he said.
"If consumers are worried about job growth and hold back on spending, or if businesses cut back on investment and hiring because of a lack of credit or concerns about the permanence of the recovery, the economy could fall back into recession."
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