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My Profile Postcards to the President Messages from citizens around the world Watch Now You are here: Home > News > Technology > Article Home Business & Finance News U.S. Politics International Technology Internet Entertainment Sports Lifestyle Oddly Enough Environment Health Science Special Coverage Video Pictures You Witness The Great Debate Blogs Reader Feedback Do More With Reuters RSS Widgets Mobile Podcasts Newsletters You Witness News Make Reuters My Homepage Partner Services CareerBuilder Affiliate Network Professional Products Support (Customer Zone) Reuters Media Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Cell phone makers face toughest year since 2001 Fri Nov 7, 2008 6:23am EST Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+] By Tarmo Virki HELSINKI (Reuters) - A wave of economic gloom is set to hit mobile phone buyers next year, with a growing number of analysts expecting the once-buoyant market to shrink for the first time since the 2001 crash, a Reuters poll showed. On average, analysts expect global growth to be 3 percent in both the fourth quarter and 2009, compared with well above 10 percent in recent years, although 8 out of 22 analysts said they expect the market to contract next year. In a similar poll just a month ago, only one analyst out of 23 forecast 2009 market sales volumes to fall, and then only slightly. For the fourth quarter, analysts expect the market to grow 11.6 percent from the third quarter, less than top phone maker Nokia's expectation of 13.5 percent. The fourth quarter has traditionally been a bonanza for cell phone makers as consumers snap up phones for holiday gifts. The $190 billion handset market, which was born in the 1980s and became a major growth industry after a surge in the late 1990s, had a brief shock in 2001 when the market fell for the only time thus far. SMALLER INVENTORIES, MORE PHONES Cell phone makers have prepared themselves for the market slowdown over the last months, avoiding the build-up of large inventories that hurt the market in 2001. Also, some distributors have been held back from building up phone inventories due to the credit crisis, analysts said. The first indications of future demand, however, are not promising. Wireless chip firm Qualcomm Inc gave, late on Thursday, a disappointing profit outlook for the current quarter and year ahead, indicating that the economic crisis could have a prolonged impact on cell phone demand. Chief Executive Paul Jacobs said the credit crisis and economic uncertainty means sales of wireless gadgets would likely be slower in 2009 than previously thought, adding he saw a "significant contraction" in customers' inventory in the first two quarters. Analysts said cell phone makers may feel more pain this time around. When the market crashed in 2001, replacement sales tumbled but sales to first subscribers continued to grow due to the low penetration of cell phones. "Mobile subscriber growth remained relatively vibrant through 2001, giving the handset industry a buffer even as upgrade demand fizzled," said analyst Tero Kuittinen from Global Crown Capital. "This time around, things could get a whole lot uglier. It would seem like Europe is getting hammered," Kuittinen said. Continued... View article on single page Share: Del.icio.us Digg Mixx My Web Facebook LinkedIn Next Article: MySpace could develop digital music player Also on Reuters Measuring extinction, species by species Slideshow Thousands of civilians flee fighting in Congo Obama's tone welcome in Mideast, change needs time Editor's Choice Pictures Video Articles Slideshow A selection of our best photos from the past 24 hours. 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