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S.Korea cuts rates third time in a month, more seen
Reuters - Saturday, November 8
By Cheon Jong-woo and Seo Eun-kyung
SEOUL, Nov 7 - The Bank of Korea cut interest rates for the third time in a month on Friday and analysts predicted further reductions in coming months as policymakers around the globe confront the biggest financial crisis in decades.
South Korea's central bank has in the past month lowered its base rate <KROCRT=ECI> by a combined 1.25 percentage points to help shore up Asia's fourth-largest economy, which analysts said was among Asia's most vulnerable to the global crisis.
It cut the base rate by 25 basis points on Friday to a 2-1/2-year low of 4.0 percent, less than two weeks after its record 75 basis-point cut at an emergency meeting on Oct. 27.
The Bank of Korea said inflation risks were quickly fading in Asia's fourth-largest economy, remarks investors took as suggesting a further easing of monetary policy lies ahead.
But the modest cut disappointed some analysts, who had hoped to see up to 50 basis points taken off the key rate.
"With major countries slashing their rates very deeply and rapidly, we should do it in the same way to maximise the effect," said Park Jong-youn, a fixed-income analyst at Woori Investment & Securities. "It's not time to save the bullets. The faster and deeper the rate cuts, the better for the economy."
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England cut rates by 50 basis points and 150 points, respectively, on Thursday, part of a wave of central bank rate cuts in the past week or so, including in the United States, China and Japan.
Nine of 14 analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 25 basis-point cut in South Korea, four had forecast a 50 basis-point cut and one had expected no change.
December treasury bond futures <KTBc1> more than wiped out gains of 34 ticks to end the day down 63 ticks, as investors locked in gains on hopes for a deeper cut and instead put their money into undervalued paper such as banks' bonds.
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Still, analysts forecast the Bank of Korea would slash the policy rate further by between 50 and 100 basis points until the end of June next year, another Reuters survey of 10 analysts conducted later in the day showed. [ID:nSEO6748]
The won <KRW=> showed a generally muted reaction to the expected decision, although the battered currency recovered its early loss by the close of domestic session on suspicion among dealers of dollar-selling intervention by authorities.
Seoul shares <.KS11> recouped a 5 percent fall to rise 3.9 percent as banks rose on investor expectations of additional rate cuts and as exporters recovered in what was largely seen as a technical rebound.
"Given other countries around the world have slashed rates sharply, South Korea looks to have a high possibility of making additional rate cuts if the economic downturn deepens," said Chun Hyo-chan, an economist at Samsung Economic Research Institute.
South Korea has offered more than $140 billion over the past few weeks to shore up the local banking sector and revive the local economy, widely perceived to be among the most vulnerable in the region to the global financial crisis.
The country's international balance of payments -- in terms of the current and capital account -- has swung to a $23.3 billion shortfall for the first nine months of this year from an $11.2 billion profit a year earlier, central bank figures show.
The worsening balance of payments, coupled with a continued foreign sell-off in local stock markets, drove the won down to its weakest in 11 years against the dollar last week.
The currency has since recovered slightly after the Bank of Korea opened a $30 billion currency swap line with the U.S. Federal Reserve but is still trading down 30 percent so far this year, making it among the worst performers in the world. (Writing by Yoo Choonsik; Editing by Keiron Henderson and Jan Dahinten)
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