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NZ fiscal, economic outlook much worse - FinMin
Reuters - 1 hour 50 minutes ago
By Gyles Beckford
WELLINGTON, Dec 18 - New Zealand will increase borrowing and is looking at larger budget deficits because of a sharp deterioration in the global outlook and a domestic economy in recession, the finance minister said on Thursday.
The government raised its forecasts for deficits for the next five years in its mid-year economic and fiscal update, and warned that the country was in for tough times even though the strong fiscal policy of previous years would provide some insulation.
"This is the rainy day that government has been saving up for," Finance Minister Bill English told a media briefing. He said the government was already taking extra measures to stimulate the economy through tax cuts and extra infrastructure spending worth around NZ$9 billion or 5 percent of gross domestic product over the next two years.
The New Zealand dollar was slightly firmer after the data at about $0.5935, while the yield on the 90-day bank bill <NBBH9> rose 1 basis point to 4.42 percent.
New Zealand has been in its first recession in more than a decade since the start of the year, with expectations in a Reuters poll that it contracted a further 0.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30.
English said the government would not engage in sharp cuts in spending, and capital spending for infrastructure projects would be brought forward and be NZ$1.45 billion in the coming year from the previous NZ$900 million allocated.
However, new expenditure in the 2009/10 budget would be limited to NZ$1.75 billion, and any of the previous government's measures not already funded, such as a nationwide home insulation programme and some capital spending by the state owned rail operator, would not proceed.
"The government is committed to a range of effective policy responses to ensure the worst-case scenarios for debt and deficits will not happen," English said.
The Treasury said it now expected a bigger deficit for the year to June 30 2009 because of the global and domestic downturn cutting the tax take and raising expenses.
It forecast a 2008/09 cash deficit -- the difference between all operational and capital spending -- of NZ$6.63 billion from the October forecast of NZ$5.9 billion, and the 2009/10 deficit to NZ$8.1 billion from NZ$5.3 billion.
Net debt in the economy was expected to be 3.1 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 from the previous forecast of 2.8 percent. It would rise to 20.7 by 2013 from a previous forecast of 13.2 percent.
The government raised the economic growth forecast for the year to March 2009 to 0.3 percent from 0.1 percent but cut the forecast for 2010 to 0.8 percent from 1.8 percent. It said unemployment would peak at 6.4 percent in 2010.
The full set of forecasts is available at www.treasury.govt.nz.
Separately the NZ Debt Management Office confirmed that the current year's borrowing programme would be increased by a further NZ$500 million to NZ$4.5 billion in the year to June 30, 2009, and rising borrowing over the next seven years.
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