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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Singapore Asia Pacific World NZ says budget back in black by 2016, revamps taxes Reuters - Thursday, May 20 Send IM Story Print * NZ govt upgrades growth forecasts * Bond issuance near term higher, longer term reduced * NZ set to post budget surpluses by 2016 * Income & company taxes down, sales tax up * S&P reaffirms rating, Fitch keeps negative outlook By Gyles Beckford and Mantik Kusjanto WELLINGTON, May 20 - New Zealand's government upgraded its growth outlook and cut its borrowing plans in its annual budget on Thursday, drawing a mixed reception from ratings agencies. The 2010/11 budget also outlined, as expected, cuts to personal and company tax rates, as well as a rise in the value added goods and services tax to help drive growth. It said it would borrow NZ$12.5 billion in the coming year, around NZ$2 billion more than signalled last December, to finance a higher than expected budget deficit of NZ$8.6 billion or 4.5 percent of gross domestic product. Analysts had expected around $6.5 billion of deficit. But that was largely due to the timing of tax cuts, a still soft revenue outlook, and higher short term debt servicing costs. Further out the forecasts showed borrowing falling to NZ$6 billion in 2014, about NZ$2 billion less than expected, and shrinking deficits, which see the economy back in surplus by 2016. "On balance then, issuance is falling relative to past forecasts, not rising," said Stephen Toplis, head of research at Bank of NZ. The New Zealand dollar briefly gained around half a cent after the budget to NZ$0.6855, but was then dragged as low as $0.6704 as it was caught in broader market volatility surrounding the euro zone's woes. There was little reaction in the bond market, with yields around two basis points lower in parts due to safe haven bids. "The kiwi is up because people like what they saw... In contrast to a lot of other countries where they are cutting spending and raising taxes, we get a better fiscal position and policies are generally growth enhancing," said ANZ-National senior economist Khoon Goh. HIGHER GROWTH OUTLOOK Official forecasts painted a slightly rosier picture of the economy over the next four years with faster growth, lower unemployment, reduced borrowing and lower debt levels. [ID:nWNBS0165] "The government's focus is on accelerating the economy and ensuring the economy expands in a sustainable way," Finance Minister Bill English said in a statement. For 2010/11, the government raised its growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 2.4 percent previously, while keeping its growth outlook steady around 3 percent for the following three fiscal years. The net debt level was forecast to peak at 27.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, still comfortably low compared with levels approaching or exceeding 100 percent of GDP in some European countries or Japan, where debt is expected to vault 200 percent of national output. RATINGS English said the budget was strong enough compared with other countries to deserve a positive response from ratings agencies. Standard and Poors' said the budget was in line with New Zealand's AA-plus rating and offered "an achievable and believable path to return the operating position to surplus." [ID::nWNA1672] In contrast, Fitch Ratings said it would not change its negative outlook on New Zealand's AA-plus rating. It dropped the outlook from stable last July citing the country's high external debt levels. "We are not looking at changing the outlook at this point in time. We will be having more assessment and discussion," Fitch sovereign analyst Ai Ling Ngiam told Reuters. "It looks to us the gain in the consolidation of the budget is quite marginal". Analysts said there was little in the budget to alter the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary view. The central bank has said it expected to start raising rates from a record low 2.5 percent in coming months as the economy gathers pace. "There are not a lot of monetary policy implications, for the RBNZ whether or not they go in June or delay will largely depend how developments offshore pan out, particularly with the current volatility in financial markets," said ANZ's Goh. Financial market pricing of the first rate rise on June 10 remained around 70 percent, which has eased from being fully priced two weeks ago on soft data and global market volatility. They also bet on 184 basis points of tightening over the next 12 months, according to a measure from Credit Suisse <CSRBNZ1Y=CSAU>. 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