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Japan's jobless rate up, household spending down
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA,Associated Press Writer AP - Friday, May 1
TOKYO - Japan's jobless rate jumped to its highest in more than four years in March and household spending extended its slide, underscoring the ongoing pain for the world's second-biggest economy. Prices also fell, fueling concerns about deflation.
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A day after the government released a bullish report on industrial production, it said Friday that unemployment rose to 4.8 percent, up from 4.4 percent in February and the worst reading since August 2004.
The actual number of unemployed jumped 25 percent from a year earlier to 3.35 million, while the number of employed workers fell 1.4 percent.
Labor conditions may even be more severe than the numbers reflect since the unemployment rate does not include those who have simply given up looking for a job, said Chiwoong Lee, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo.
"Since unemployment is a lagging indicator _ it lags manufacturing capacity utilization by three months, for example _ further worsening is in store as the current real economy is reflected," Lee said in a note to clients.
Meanwhile, Japan's core consumer price index excluding volatile fresh food prices fell 0.1 percent in March from a year earlier, pushed down by lower transportation and communication prices. It was the first drop since September 2007.
The central bank said Thursday it expects CPI declines to accelerate through the middle of this fiscal year through March 2010.
Anxiety over jobs led families to spend less, with average monthly household spending declining 0.4 percent from the previous year, according the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Friday's data stood in contrast to the hopeful news Thursday about factory output.
After tumbling sharply in recent months, industrial production rose 1.6 percent in March from February, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. It marked the first climb in six months.
The outlook offered further reason for optimism. Factory output _ vital in Japan's export-dependent economy _ is projected to rise 4.3 percent this month and another 6.1 percent in May.
"Japanese industrial production is turning the corner at a high speed," said Masayuki Kichikawa, chief economist at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. "These figures should serve as strong evidence that the economy is on a recovery track."
The central bank followed with its own relatively upbeat appraisal Thursday afternoon after the policy board left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.1 percent. While it projects Japan's gross domestic product to contract 3.1 percent this fiscal year, it sees a turnaround emerging in the second half.
Faced with an unprecedented collapse in global demand, the Japanese economy has been mired in its deepest recession since the end of World War II.
Major exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. moved quickly to adjust by reducing shifts, suspending factory lines and announcing thousands of job cuts over the past few months. Their strategy looks to be paying off, with manufacturers now seeking to replenish thinning stockpiles in anticipation of higher demand from Asia and China.
But while brighter days may be ahead for manufacturers, other sectors of the economy will remain weak, says Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. Non-manufacturers and households could get a reprieve from planned government aid, he said, but they will still be on the losing end of the economy.
"I don't think there will be a real recovery for households before the first quarter of 2010," Morita said. "We really have to wait for manufacturers to stop cutting costs."
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Taro Aso's Cabinet submitted a massive supplementary budget to finance a new stimulus package. The proposal calls for a record 15 trillion yen ($155 billion) in government spending, equivalent to about 3 percent of Japan's gross domestic product.
The administration says the newest stimulus package will help protect the economy from slipping further while laying the foundation for future growth, including incentives for buying "eco-friendly" cars and home appliances. It also provides support for the unemployed and small businesses.
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Enlarge Photo
In this Jan. 6, 2009 photo, a group of laid-off temporary workers stage a protest outside a hotel where the Japan Business Federation chairman and business circles are holding a new year's party in Tokyo. Japan's jobless rate stood at 4.8 percent, up from 4.4 percent in February, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said Friday, May 1, 2009. The actual number of unemployed jumped 25 percent from a year earlier to 3.35 million, while the number of employed workers fell 1.4 percent. The placards held by the laid-off workers read:"Temporary workers are not properties." (AP Photo/Junji Kurokawa)
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