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US jobs picture improves, unemployment dips to 10 percent
AFP - Saturday, December 5
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WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The US labor market witnessed a dramatic improvement in November as the number of jobs lost narrowed to 11,000 and the unemployment rate dipped to 10.0 percent, official data showed Friday.
The Labor Department figures showed the labor market nearing positive territory, suggesting the economy is approaching job growth needed to sustain a fragile recovery.
"This is good news, just in time for the season of hope," President Barack Obama told a meeting of residents in Pennsylvania after the figures were released.
"But I want to keep this in perspective. We still have a long way to go."
The report was far better than analyst expectations for a loss of 125,000 jobs and a jobless rate unchanged from October at 10.2 percent.
"This is another signpost that the recession is over, even if a vigorous recovery is not yet assured," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.
"We're still quite a way from the 150,000 jobs a month and above to consistently bring the unemployment rate down. But I think we will start to see some positive net hiring in the first quarter and that will serve as a buttress against a drop back into recession."
The Labor Department revised its data from the prior two months to show fewer job loses than earlier estimated -- 111,000 losses in October instead of 190,000 and 139,000 in September instead of 219,000.
"This was a surprisingly strong report with details matching the 'wow' factor in the headline print," said Ian Pollick, economic strategist at TD Securities.
Brian Wesbury at First Trust Portfolios said the report suggests the unemployment rate has peaked.
"The jobless rate will not decline every month but is likely to be significantly lower by late next year," he said.
The report showed the goods-producing sectors lost 69,000 jobs, including 41,000 in manufacturing and 27,000 in construction.
But services -- which represents the largest number of jobs -- saw growth of 58,000 jobs. Within services, retail trade lost 15,000 jobs but professional and business services added a hefty 86,000, while education and health services saw an increase of 40,000.
Weekly hours worked, sometimes seen as a proxy for economic activity, increased by 0.6 percent, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent.
Sophia Koropeckyj at Moody's Economy.com said the increase in hours worked is "a good cyclical indicator."
"It is expected that employers will first extend hours before taking on new workers. This is a good first step," she said.
The report showed the labor force fell by 98,000 with so-called discouraged workers stopping their search for work, a factor that lowers the unemployment rate.
The employment picture remained weak in economically critical sectors such as retailing, manufacturing and construction, some analysts noted.
Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight said the report nonetheless indicates "that we are nearer a bottom in the labor market that we thought."
The Labor Department report, one of the best indicators of economic momentum, includes two surveys, one of businesses for payrolls activity and a larger survey of households for the unemployment rate.
The household survey showed an expansion of 277,000 jobs.
"This is miles above the underlying trend rate of improvement so we expect a correction in the next month or two," said Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics.
"There is no doubt the underlying trend in payrolls is improving, but this looks a bit too fast. Looking ahead, though, the continued big gains in temp hiring do suggest headline payrolls will be positive by the end of the first quarter of 2010."
The US economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter, reversing four quarters of contraction in the worst recession in decades.
Yet many economists argue the recovery could be imperilled by high unemployment, limiting consumer incomes and hurting confidence and spending.
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