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Sunday, 2 August 2009 - Tight credit could limit eurozone growth: analysts
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    Read more with google mobile : Tight credit could limit eurozone growth: analysts

    Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: Tight credit could limit eurozone growth: analysts AFP - Sunday, August 2 FRANKFURT (AFP) - - Eurozone consumers can count on the European Central Bank's main interest rate staying at 1.0 percent this week, but tight credit could throttle the chances of a stout economic recovery, analysts say. ADVERTISEMENT The ECB "is biding its time for now, hoping that its generous liquidity provision will achieve the desired boost to commercial bank lending," Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown said. In late June, the central bank lent commercial banks more than 440 billion euros (620 billion dollars) for a year, and has urged them to share the windfall with the wider economy. But the ECB's latest bank lending survey showed banks are still tightening loan standards owing mainly to poor economic prospects for businesses, even though the number of banks doing so has dropped sharply. In Britain, the Bank of England is expected to keep its main lending rate unchanged at 0.50 percent on Thursday, with analysts looking for more purchases of government bonds under the bank's quantitative easing scheme. The BoE could pump another 25 billion pounds (29 billion euros, 41 billion dollars) into the economy via its non-conventional policy. Comparable rates at the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are essentially zero. Another development the ECB governing council will watch is the threat of deflation, when prices fall for a protracted period and economic activity gets stuck as consumers and businesses wait for costs to fall even further. Consumer prices in the 16-nation eurozone fell by a record 0.6 percent in July over one year, after dropping for the first time in June, according to an official EU estimate. The European Commission found more consumers now expect prices to fall than before, with so-called inflation expectations at their lowest level last month since a survey began in 1985. In general, consumer sentiment rose for the fourth month running in July to hit an eight-month high however, while a key purchasing managers index posted its second sharpest rise on record. Eurozone economic activity is nonetheless forecast to contract by 1.9 percent this year. The International Monetary Fund said the eurozone could expect "a modest recovery starting in the first half of 2010," but also warned of "a small risk of sustained deflation." Prices have fallen sharply when compared with a spike in energy costs a year ago, but the financial crisis and recession have also created spare industrial capacity and rising unemployment that could push prices downward in general. A solid recovery would protect against deflation, but it depends in part on getting credit flowing to companies and households again. "Financial crises have historically led to period of protracted growth weakness," Goldman Sachs economist Saleem Bahaj noted. "This is because one of the key fuels for a recovery, credit, is in short supply." Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert nontheless noted that "mounting evidence of an economic recovery inspires some hope that lending will also improve again without further intervention on the ECB's part." The bank's lending survey also found weaker demand for credit, despite a slight pick up from households seeking mortgages. If economies in Asia and North America grow, eurozone companies might then need credit to meet rising demand and "tighter credit standards might start to bite" at that point, Deutsche Bank economist Gilles Moec said. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Sign in to recommend this article » 0 users recommend Related Articles: Business Hyundai, Kia to offer incentives for jobless in S.KoreaReuters - 2 hours 34 minutes ago China steel output to grow despite falling demandAFP - 2 hours 35 minutes ago Philippine c.bank says domestic liquidity adequateReuters - Sunday, August 2 Tight credit could limit eurozone growth: analystsAFP - Sunday, August 2 Talks collapse at troubled SKorean auto firmAFP - Sunday, August 2 Enlarge Photo Tight credit could limit eurozone growth: analysts Related Photos Slideshow Full Photo Coverage: Business & Economy Most Popular – Business Viewed Comets probably won't cause the end of life as we know it: study Organic food not healthier, says British study Madonna writes of her spiritual awakening Beer flows as Obama tries to cool down a hot furor US on track to pump $2 bln into cash-for-clunkers program View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte Ltd. (Co. Reg. No. 199700735D). All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Service - Community - Intellectual Property Rights Policy - Help

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