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Japan's automakers recover but challenges remain
AFP - Thursday, August 5
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Japan's automakers recover but challenges remain
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TOKYO (AFP) - – Japan's top automakers reported strong results for the quarter ended June as they reap the benefits of a rebound in global demand, but concerns such as a strong yen cloud their outlook, say analysts.
The top three automakers, Toyota, Honda and Nissan, saw quarterly profits surge on-year as the industry recovers from the lows hit in a financial crisis that forced the companies to scale back production and slash thousands of jobs.
The results "reflect the recovery of the overall economy, of the Japanese auto market and the growth of emerging markets," in terms of where most demand is coming from, auto analyst Tatsuya Mizuno said.
Japan's export-driven recovery has been particularly reliant on shipments of automobiles and parts to Asia, especially China where rampant income growth is fuelling demand for increased mobility.
On Wednesday Toyota reported a net profit of 190.47 billion yen (2.2 billion dollars) for the quarter ended June, turning around a loss of 77.8 billion yen in the same period a year earlier and beating forecasts.
The company also hiked its profit forecast for the financial year to 340 billion yen, betting on strong Asian demand to continue to help drive its rebound.
And number-two maker Honda saw net profit of 272.49 billion yen for the first quarter, soaring from 7.56 billion yen in the same period last year on a pick up in Asian and North American sales, also hiking its forecast.
However, in posting its own surging quarterly net profit of 106.6 billion yen for the April-June quarter, after a 16.5 billion yen loss a year earlier, Nissan declined to raise its annual forecast, citing the yen strength.
The safe-haven unit has surged beyond the trading levels assumed earlier by many exporters who have eyed its rise with anxiety, as investors seek a refuge from dollar and euro volatility.
Last month Toshiyuki Shiga, chairman of the Japan Auto Manufacturers Association, urged the government to deal with the yen's strength, saying its seemingly relentless rise could hurt the country's economy.
If sustained, a stronger yen could erode repatriated overseas profits and make goods more expensive overseas, threatening the export sector that Japan depends on to offset its weak domestic picture, say analysts.
Carmakers "are in the black now but a further rise of the yen would eat into profits in the future," said Mamoru Kato, auto analyst at Tokai Tokyo Research Centre.
Manufacturers are also bracing for the expiration in September of incentives to spur buying of environmentally friendly cars in Japan and the potential resulting hit to demand.
"In Japan, sales in the second half (from September) will undoubtedly slow down" as the government plans not to extend tax breaks granted for purchases of environment-friendly vehicles, Kato added.
"We note a lack of visibility concerning currency movements and the possible backlash in demand after the end of the demand-stimulus programmes in Japan, which requires our close monitoring," said Toyota Senior Managing Director Takahiko Ijichi.
"From the second quarter, we expect our sales figures to go through a difficult path," he said.
The sector's recent rebound is also notable given the recall crisis that has hit the Japanese industry in recent months.
The crisis centred on the woes of Toyota, which has pulled around 10 million vehicles over safety concerns and faces a host of lawsuits over "unintended acceleration" issues blamed for more than 80 deaths in the US.
Toyota overtook General Motors in 2008 as the world's top automaker, but the safety issues have raised questions about whether it sacrificed its legendary quality to become number one.
However it continues to post profits and sales increases, leading analysts to conclude that the carmaker has navigated its way out of the storm despite the threat to profitability posed by the pending lawsuits.
"The worst for Toyota is finished but some problems ahead: some recalls from time to time, class actions in US. Their level of profitability is lower than before," said Mizuno.
But fears for the global economy, particularly over the durability of recovery in the United States, also cast a shadow.
On Tuesday Japanese automakers reported weaker US sales, with Toyota's July sales falling 3.2 percent year-on-year and Honda's sales dropping 2.0 percent.
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