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NZ inflation slows sharply, backs big rate cut
Reuters - 2 hours 29 minutes ago
WELLINGTON, Jan 20 - New Zealand's consumer prices fell in the December quarter for the first time in two years, backing expectations of a sharp rate cut later this month to prop up the recession-hit economy and sending the kiwi dollar lower.
The consumer price index fell 0.5 percent in the three months to December, its steepest decline since December 1998, pushing down the annual inflation rate to 3.4 percent from 5.1 percent in the previous quarter, data showed on Tuesday.
"It is a much bigger negative than we were expecting. This means we are expecting a 100 basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later this month and a reduction to 3.5 percent by March," said Stephen Halmarick, co-head of market economics at Citigroup.
Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast consumer prices would fall 0.4 percent from the July-September quarter, with the annual rate seen at 3.6 percent from 5.1 percent in the September quarter, which was its highest level in 18 years.
The central bank has forecast a quarterly decline of 0.3 percent for an annual rate of 3.6 percent.
The New Zealand dollar <NZD=> fell about half a cent after the data to around $0.5360/70. The yield on the March bank bill futures contract <NBBH9> was unmoved at 3.71 percent.
Statistics New Zealand said the fall in consumer prices was driven by a 22.4 percent decline in petrol prices, as well as cheaper food and the first fall in new house prices since March 1999 quarter.
Non-tradables inflation, a key measure of domestic inflation closely watched by the central bank, rose 0.8 percent for the quarter and 4.3 percent for the year through December.
With prices falling, analysts say the RBNZ can have little doubt that inflation will soon fall back within its 1-3 percent target range, allowing it to concentrate on reviving the economy.
New Zealand fell into recession in the first half of 2008, with the contraction expected to extend into the fourth quarter and little if any growth seen in 2009.
Economists expect the official cash rate to be cut by 100 basis points to 4 percent at the RBNZ's Jan. 29 review and to fall to 3.5 percent by the middle of this year.
The RBNZ has cut rates four times since July by a total of 3.25 percentage points to 5 percent to support the NZ$180 billion economy.
Analysts have said that a further slump in business confidence to a 29-year low in a closely-watched survey last week pointed to a deepening recession and the need for cheaper borrowing.
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