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China raises fuel prices as economy steams ahead
By ELAINE KURTENBACH,AP Business Writer -
Thursday, April 15
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SHANGHAI – China raised fuel prices Wednesday for the first time in five months, showing Beijing's confidence it can control inflation, ahead of the release of data expected to show rapid growth accelerated in the first quarter of the year.
Observers are watching whether growth and inflation data due out Thursday show a need for drastic action to prevent overheating. The economy expanded by 10.7 percent in the final quarter of 2009 and analysts expect the latest numbers to show growth shooting up to nearly 12 percent in the January-to-March period.
"Policymakers seem to think that inflation is still well under control and they seized the opportunity to raise fuel prices, as they expect it will not harm the economy," said Qiu Xiaofeng, a petroleum industry analyst at China Merchant Securities, in Shanghai.
Also Wednesday, the government reported that housing prices in 70 major cities rose 11.7 percent in March from a year earlier _ a trend that has raised alarms over a dangerous bubble in real estate prices. That has added to expectations of a rate hike.
Chinese leaders face a difficult balancing act, trying to keep economic growth strong while averting a spike in inflation and curbing reckless, stimulus-fueled spending on unneeded factories and other assets that they worry could leave a mountain of bad debts.
The price hikes of 4 percent to 4.5 percent for gasoline, diesel and other fuels, the first since November, were in line with expectations.
Last year, the government raised prices eight times as it reformed its pricing system, seeking to keep refiners running at high enough capacity to meet demand as the economy recovers.
"The price rise is to ensure fuel supplies to meet the peak consumption as spring planting season approaches and industrial activities accelerate," said the Cabinet's planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, on its Web site.
The NDRC said the price hike would add to inflation, but estimated the direct impact at only 0.07 percentage points. It vowed to clamp down on any "chain reaction price adjustments."
Inflation rose to 2.7 percent in February compared with a year earlier, close to the government's official target of 3 percent for the year.
"As to whether the economy runs a risk of overheating, the probability is not high," Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Center, told the state-run newspaper Shanghai Securities News.
Indicators released so far are mixed.
Beijing reported its first monthly trade deficit in six years for March as imports surged, reflecting the fact that China and its domestic consumption are recovering faster than the United States and other key export markets. But adjusted for inflation, the trade surplus expanded in January-March.
"We see that export recovery is trotting along largely as envisaged, with exports to all major markets recovering nicely," said UBS economist Tao Wang.
Lending by Chinese banks fell 43 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as the government tightened credit controls as part of efforts to wind down its stimulus.
Prices for farm produce have fallen for seven straight weeks despite a catastrophic drought in much of southwestern China, according to the Ministry of Commerce. That suggests lower food prices, a key component of the consumer price index.
But some economists point to data showing growth running at faster than officially reported levels _ such as a 25 percent jump in power use and an even faster rise in freight shipments.
"There are a number of reasons to be concerned that a nastier bout of inflation is in the works," said Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green in a report, noting rising prices for oil and other commodities, higher wages and surging land prices.
Reflecting concern that easy credit is encouraging wasteful spending, regulators have announced a fresh effort to assess the risks from loans made to local government financing entities for investing in real estate, infrastructure and other projects.
Each day brings fresh reports of projects found to be unprofitable or ill-conceived. A high-speed rail line from Beijing to southeastern China's Fujian province was shut down after just two months because passengers shunned it in favor of cheaper air fares.
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