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S.Korea prices, manufacturing pick up, stir hike talk
Reuters - 1 hour 59 minutes ago
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* April CPI up 2.6 pct y/y vs 2.4 pct f'cast, 2.3 pct March
* Manufacturing growth picks up in April - PMI survey shows
* Data reignites speculation rate rise may be needed soon
By Cheon Jong-woo
SEOUL, May 3 - South Korea's inflation and manufacturing activity picked up in April, fueling concerns the central bank may wait too long with raising interest rates because of doubts about the strength of global economic recovery.
Annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent in March, topping a consensus forecast of 2.4 percent. [ID:nTOE63Q023]
Monday's price data coincided with an HSBC/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' survey that showed a rebound in the industry's growth.[ID:nSUL000043] Analysts said the central bank was unlikely to raise rates this quarter in the face of government warnings that the global recovery is still tentative. In addition, core inflation that strips out volatile food and fuel prices remained at a four-year low of 1.5 percent, suggesting no immediate inflation threat.
The risk was, however, that by keeping rates at a record low 2.0 percent for much longer the central bank risked a build-up of price pressures and property and stock market bubbles that could derail the recovery.
"All of the recent data have justified higher rates for a long time. If the Bank of Korea keeps delaying a rate hike and moves after other countries such as the U.S., that will force the economy pay big costs," said Kim Jae-eun, an economist at Hyundai Securities.
The June treasury bond futures fell 0.13 points to 111.32 after the data, in a sign that markets were starting to factor in a greater chance of a rate rise.
"Investors started thinking they should be prepared for a rate hike, even though they don't expect an immediate change now," said Kong Dong-rak, a fixed-income analyst at Taurus Investment & Securities.
SUSTAINED RECOVERY
Monday's figures follow a slew of economic statistics last week, which pointed to a sustained recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy, with exports per working day in April hitting a 19-month high, March industrial output doubling expectations and first quarter growth also beating forecasts.
Asia has been leading the recovery from the worst economic crisis in generations and South Korea, which barely skirted recession last year, is expected to grow by about 5 percent this year.
But unlike several of its Asian peers, including China and India, which have already started to withdraw the stimulus deployed during the crisis, Seoul has yet to begin unwinding its emergency policies.
On Sunday, China raised the proportion of deposits that lenders must keep in reserve at the central bank, another step in its months-old campaign to mop up excess cash in the economy at a time when inflation is accelerating. [ID:nSGE64200J]
South Korea's central bank has said that it would take into account policy in big countries as well as domestic employment and inflation in its policy.
The comments convinced many investors that the Bank of Korea might wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pull the trigger first or act only once inflation starts approaching the upper end of its 2.0-4.0 percent target range.
However, a string of stronger-than-expected economic data, stirred speculation that fear of falling behind the curve may force the Bank of Korea's hand and make it act sooner.
"Around the end of the year, developed countries will increase rates at the same time. That will put pressure on a global economic growth and that will make more difficult for the BOK to raise rates," said Lim Ji-won, an economist at JPMorgan Chase.
JPMorgan said in a research report that it expected the central bank to start tightening in the third quarter, worried that excessively easy monetary conditions might threaten the longer term inflation outlook.
The central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate steady for 14 months and it next review it on May 12. (Additional reporting by Lee Shin-hyung; Editing by Jonathan Thatcher and Tomasz Janowski)
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