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Fed senses need for new stimulus 'before long': minutes
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Fed senses need for new stimulus 'before long': minutes
AFP - 38 minutes ago
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WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The Federal Reserve believes an additional stimulus will be needed "before long" to prop up a slackening economic recovery, the minutes of its last policy-setting meeting showed Tuesday.
While the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee provided no specific details on plans for any new stimulus, members generally agreed that such action would be swift if economic conditions warranted.
The wording in the FOMC's brief statement at the end of its September 21 meeting that the central bank was prepared "to provide additional accommodation if needed" to support the recovery, was decided after members were briefed on mostly worsening conditions since the August 10 FOMC meeting.
"Such an indication accorded with the members' sense that such accommodation may be appropriate before long, but also made clear that any decisions would depend upon future information about the economic situation and outlook," the minutes said.
Inclusion of that signal in the FOMC statement fired up market speculation the Fed will soon pump money again into the economy through major asset purchases, a measure known as quantitative easing (QE).
The Fed tipoff has helped drive stock and bond markets sharply higher and weakened the dollar as traders contemplated a new round of Fed purchases, dubbed QE2.
Many observers say a Fed announcement on QE2 could come as soon as November 3, at the conclusion of a two-day FOMC meeting, and some predict the Fed will wait until the next meeting, on December 14.
The FOMC, headed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, also in September kept its key interest rate on hold at between zero and 0.25 percent "for an extended period." The central bank had slashed its federal funds target rate to that historic low in December 2008 amid an escalating financial meltdown on Wall Street.
The Fed has bought about 1.5 trillion dollars in bonds and securities since the financial crisis kicked into high gear two years ago.
Bernanke, an expert on the Great Depression, argues the Fed exited stimulus too soon during that period and has suggested he wants to avoid repeating that mistake.
The minutes of the FOMC meeting revealed disagreement on further stimulus among the 11 current members of the 12-member panel, publicly expressed by the lone dissenting vote against the panel's statement by Thomas Hoenig, president of the Fed Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Hoenig insisted the zero interest rate policy and "extended period" language were no longer appropriate with a moderate recovery under way.
The minutes said that one member believed that continuing to communicate that rate expectation in the statement "would create conditions that could lead to macroeconomic and financial imbalances."
Some FOMC members preferred to gather more information before reaching a stimulus decision, the minutes said, and members wanted to mull further the most effective framework for "calibrating and communicating" any additional steps to provide such stimulus.
Members also discussed possible strategies for affecting short-term inflation expectations, including "targeting a path for the price level rather than the rate of inflation."
More detailed information about the rates of inflation the committee considered consistent with its "dual mandate" to promote maximum employment and price stability was also discussed.
"Several members noted that unless the pace of economic recovery strengthened or underlying inflation moved back toward a level consistent with the committees mandate, they would consider it appropriate to take action soon."
Economists are divided on whether additional central bank stimulus would hurt or help the recovery from the worst recession in decades.
On Monday, Janet Yellen, in her first public speech as Fed vice chairman, voiced concern about the potential to encourage excessive risk-taking.
"It is conceivable that accommodative monetary policy could provide tinder for a buildup of leverage and excessive risk-taking in the financial system," she said.
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