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More Asia progress possible under new Australia PM
AFP - Sunday, June 27
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More Asia progress possible under new Australia PM
SYDNEY (AFP) - – Ousted Australian leader Kevin Rudd may have talked big on engagement with Asia, but his successor, Julia Gillard, has a consultative approach seen as more likely to get things done, analysts said.
Rudd, a Mandarin-speaking China expert and former diplomat in Beijing, was tossed from power Thursday in a sudden Labor Party coup less than three years after his landslide election win.
The self-avowed Sinophile made much of his passion for what he described as the "Asian century," proposing a new pan-Asian body to boost regional integration and pushing literacy in Asian languages.
But his foreign policy legacy was dismissed as heavy on style with little substance by a number of Asia commentators, who said he did more to alienate key partners like Japan, India and China than consolidate relations.
"Most of the region was very willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at first, and indeed quite willing to embrace and willing to listen to him," said Rory Medcalf, a director at foreign policy think-tank the Lowy Institute.
"But within a fairly short time I think they were disappointed with the way he engaged with them, the fact that he didn't listen to them," he told AFP.
Medcalf said Southeast Asian nations liked Rudd's Asia-centric stance, and many applauded his apology to Aborigines as a "further and final step away from Australia's reputation as some sort of old fashioned Anglo-Saxon relic."
But the paradox of Rudd was that "his rhetoric about Asia was great, his achievements weren't," said Medcalf, citing his doomed push for an Asia-Pacific bloc incorporating the US, China, Japan, India, Indonesia and Russia.
"I think in a way he was too convinced of his own unique expertise and his own unique brilliance on these issues," he explained.
"The style of Asian diplomacy is slow, consultative consensus-building rather than jumping out with dramatic new ideas and declaring your ideas before you've actually consulted."
Andrew O'Neil, director of Griffith University's Asia Institute, said Rudd earned a reputation as an "activist," particularly during the global slump.
"Some leaders saw Rudd as this meddling Australian prime minister, and some of them may well be relieved he's gone now," O'Neil said.
Gillard was likely to follow the "same broad contours" of foreign policy as Rudd -- a strong alliance with the US, affinity with the United Nations, and a deep engagement in the Asia-Pacific.
"But I think Gillard is probably going to be a little bit more cautious in the way she approaches foreign policy," said O'Neil, predicting a more consultative manner and the delegation of more responsibility to the foreign minister.
Medcalf said Gillard would likely be well-received in the region and had the opportunity to make a clean break from Rudd, particularly in China, where he said the former prime minister had "overpersonalised" the issues.
"I think he overestimated what he could achieve as a Mandarin speaker and China expert, and underestimated how difficult it actually is to influence events within China," said Medcalf.
"(Gillard) can show a little bit of humility and willingness to consult."
Australian National University expert Jim George said the change in leadership would have little impact on China, Australia's most important trading partner.
"If nothing else (the Chinese) are enormously pragmatic, and while the profile might be slightly different with someone other than Kevin Rudd as prime minister, I suspect that will have little to do with the decision-making associated with our relationship," he said.
Medcalf tipped Gillard to abandon Rudd's push for a new regional bloc and said she would probably "try to work with existing institutions" pragmatically and cement ties with Japan, China, India, Indonesia and South Korea.
"Essentially, I don't think she's going to play up Asia or play down Asia," he said. "I think she'll just simply get on with the job."
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