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PREVIEW-Pakistan's July CPI seen up 12.34 percent
Reuters - Wednesday, August 11
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* What: Pakistan CPI data for July
* When: On or soon after Tuesday
* CPI rise seen higher in coming months because of damage caused by floods.
KARACHI, Aug 10 - Pakistan's consumer price index , the key indicator of inflation, likely rose by 12.34 percent year-on-year in July, a slower rise than in June, thanks to a high base affect, according to a Reuters poll.
July consumer prices were seen rising 12.34 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of a survey of 10 analysts and economists. The CPI rose by 12.69 percent in June.
The Federal Bureau of Statistics is due to release CPI data on, or soon after, Tuesday.
The central bank has maintained a tight monetary policy and raised the key policy rate by 50 basis points to 13 percent last month to reinforce its fight against inflation and a widening fiscal deficit.
But the inflation trend is likely to be higher in coming months because of serious floods which began at the end of last month.
"Inflation is likely to rise further due to the loss of crops and devastation caused by the floods," said Asif Qureshi, director at Invisor Securities Ltd.
The worst floods in 80 years will mean Pakistan will miss a target of 4.5 percent gross domestic product growth this year although the extent of the damage is being assessed, a Finance Ministry official said on Tuesday.
The International Monetary Fund said on Monday the floods will cause "major harm to the economy", as donor and investor concerns grew over the disaster's impact on an already fragile economy. [ID:nN09101524]
The government said it was assessing the damage but it would be substantial, especially in the agriculture sector.
Analysts also said prices usually rise in the holy month of Ramadan which is due to begin this week.
CPI FORECASTS FOR JULY
IGI Securities 11.6
Global Securities 11.8
Silk Bank 12.2
NIB Bank 12.23
Invisor Securities 12.3
Invest & Finance Securities Ltd. 12.38
Invest Capital Investment Bank 12.44
Citbank 12.5
Meezan Bank 12.8
Topline Securities 13.2
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Median 12.34 (For more Reuters coverage of Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/places/pakistan)
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