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Pakistan share price floor set to go on Monday
Reuters - Monday, December 15
By Sahar Ahmed
KARACHI, Dec 14 - Pakistani shares are expected to fall at least 30 percent in the next few days after the Karachi Stock Exchange was ordered to remove a trading floor placed under its benchmark stock index almost four months ago.
Stock Exchange authorities met on Sunday for last minute deliberations on a Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan directive for the floor to be removed on Monday.
The floor was placed on the KSE index on Aug. 28 after it fell nearly 35 percent on the year.
"The floor will be removed tomorrow," SECP chairman Razi-ur-Rahman told Reuters after the meeting.
The floor, placed on the main index <.KSE> at 9,144 points on Aug. 28, crippled trade.
The index ended at 9,187.10 points on Friday but traders said they expected sharp falls beginning on Monday.
Authorities had proposed a 20 billion rupee government fund to support the market when the floor was removed but the International Monetary Fund , which last month bailed Pakistan out of a balance of payments crisis, said government money should not be used.
"The market is likely to go down by 30 to 35 percent in the next few sessions," said Shuja Rizvi, director of broking operations at Capital One Equities Ltd.
Circuit breakers will limit the market's daily loss to 5 percent.
According to KSE data, in off-market transactions as of Dec. 12 Engro Chemicals Ltd <EGCH.KA> was trading 45 percent below its official market price at 100 rupees, MCB Bank <MCB.KA> was trading 49 percent lower at 118 rupees and the index's heaviest weighted company, Oil and Gas Development Co Ltd <OGDC.KA> was trading 41.5 percent lower at 54 rupees.
FOREIGN SELLING
Analysts fear there may be foreign selling of $500 million to $600 million.
"Foreigners have about $2.2 billion worth of Pakistani shares, out of which we may see selling of around $500 million to $600 million," said Farhan Rizvi, an analyst at JS Global Capital Ltd.
"But also the problem is, will there be genuine buyers at this point if off-market transactions are trading at such low prices?"
Foreign selling would lead to portfolio outflows which would also hurt the Pakistani rupee which is down almost 22 percent this year and ended at 78.82/85 to the dollar on Saturday.
MSCI Barra said on Thursday it was removing Pakistani shares from its emerging markets index.
The exchange had delayed the floor's removal while authorities considered how to deal with the anticipated flood of selling.
The IMF said it wanted some say over whether government money should be used for a fund. A senior exchange official told Reuters this month the IMF was blocking the government's plan to provide a fund.
Meanwhile, two brokers have filed a court case against exchange authorities including the SECP on the grounds that removing the floor without a fund would lead to many defaults. (sahar.ahmed@thomsonreuters.com; +92-21 5685192; sahar.ahmed.reuters.com@reuters.net))
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