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China's yuan hits highest level in five years
AFP - Tuesday, June 22
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BEIJING (AFP) - – China's yuan hit its strongest level in years Monday after authorities pledged limited currency reform, but analysts said Beijing's vow was unlikely to buy off critics of its exchange-rate controls.
China had pledged Saturday to allow more flexibility in what was widely seen as a bid to head off a spat with Washington at this weekend's G20 summit in Canada over charges that Beijing cheats on trade by skewing its forex rate.
But on Monday the central bank held the central parity rate -- the centre point of the currency's official trading band -- at 6.8275 to the dollar, unchanged from Friday.
However, the yuan subsequently pierced the 6.8 barrier to hit 6.7969 to the dollar Monday, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
It was its strongest level since July 2005 when policymakers unpegged the yuan from the dollar and moved to a managed floating exchange rate.
But that was still within Beijing's tight trading band and analysts said China's pledge did not presage a major revaluation.
"They have been dragging their feet on yuan appreciation so this was an obvious attempt to pre-empt being a target at the G20," said Willy Lam, a China analyst at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
"The appreciation will be very limited, at most five percent over the next 12 months, so it will be well short of expectations."
Policymakers revalued the yuan in July 2005 before reimposing a de-facto peg three years later during the global financial crisis to protect exporting companies, which have been the backbone of China's economic boom.
Critics, not least in the US Congress, say that has left the yuan undervalued by as much as 40 percent and gives Chinese exporters an unfair trade advantage at the cost of US jobs.
Prior to Saturday, Beijing had insisted that the yuan's rate was not up for discussion at the G20, when presidents Hu Jintao and Barack Obama will meet other global leaders. But US demands for reform are getting ever louder.
In Saturday's vaguely worded statement, the central bank said it would "strengthen the flexibility" of the yuan's exchange rate.
However, the bank followed up on Sunday to say there would be no "large swings" in the currency and no one-off adjustment. Yuan "stability" -- code for Beijing's tight grip -- would remain.
"China is unlikely to abandon its policy of gradualism," said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.
Simpfendorfer expects a three percent yuan appreciation over the next 12 months, a pace that could invite renewed US impatience and pressure on China.
"A more flexible yuan will be welcomed by some of China's critics but it is clearly unlikely to appease those calling for a large revaluation," he said.
Complaints already have emerged, with senior US Senator Chuck Schumer expressing disappointment Sunday with China ruling out "large swings".
"It vindicates our initial scepticism," Schumer, vice-chairman of a congressional committee on the economy, said in a statement.
"We intend to move forward as quickly as possible with legislation" aimed at punishing China for its currency policy, he added.
The currency issue has been a constant irritant in US-China ties, with members of Congress threatening trade sanctions on China and pushing for action at the G20.
Lam noted the central bank has a history of making incremental changes ahead of potentially sensitive events -- most recently on the eve of President Hu's US visit in April -- while stopping short of harder hitting action.
Beijing has defended its currency policy even as the world's third-largest economy grew a blistering 11.9 percent in the first quarter and demand for Chinese-made products rebounded.
Patrick Chovanec, an economist at Beijing's Tsinghua University, said Beijing wants to go slow to give export firms time to adjust and that a sudden and significant revaluation is "politically and economically too painful."
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